USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 4th to 9th Nov 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The economic data for the week ahead will see the Eurozone’s manufacturing and services PMI numbers coming out. Given that the flash PMI’s signaled a modest decline in both the sectors, the markets will be looking to see how the Eurozone’s economic activity fared in the month of October. Data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet for the most part of this week. Data from Japan will see some second tier data coming out. The BoJ will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes earlier in the week.
The economic data from the U.S. is also fairly quiet. The big event this week will be the U.S. mid-term elections. This could potentially keep the markets on the edge. Economic data over the week will see the release of the U.S. producer prices index and the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report. The FOMC will be holding its placeholder meeting on Thursday. No changes are expected at this week’s monetary policy meeting as the Fed will prepare the market for a December rate hike.
Chart set up: The USDJPY was seen firmly holding on to the support level at 112.74. The rebound off this level saw price action closing higher on the week. However, the resistance level at 113.58 is likely to keep the gains in the currency pair in check.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 111.75; Resistance: 112.74
Commentary:
The USDJPY continues to maintain a sideways range with a slight uptick. However, price action could be seen testing the resistance level mentioned. Further gains can be expected only on a strong breakout above this level. Failure to break the resistance level could mean that the currency pair will be trading flat. However, the risk sentiment for the week ahead will dictate the flows into USDJPY. We expect to see the support level being breached. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be bearish.
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