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Friday, August 25, 2017

[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

Technical Outlook: The USDCHF gave up the gains from 0.9730 and pushed lower to test the previous support at 0.9564. Price action suggests that the inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play. However, price action at 0.9564 will be crucial. A reversal off this level is required for USDCHF to post a reversal. A retest of the inverse head and shoulders neckline resistance needs to be cleared for further gains towards 0.9861. In the event that USDCHF breaks below 0.9564, then the inverse head and shoulders pattern could be invalidated with the next support coming in at the July lows of 0.9454.

Fundamental Outlook: Switzerland’s economic calendar this week will focus on the retail sales and manufacturing PMI numbers which are unlikely to move the market much. Amid a rather quiet trading week, the Swiss franc will be looking to clues from the U.S. dollar which is heading into a rather busy week. In the U.S. important economic releases this week include the second GDP estimates for the second quarter, while on Friday the payrolls report will keep the markets on the edge.

Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

The post USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.



from Advanced Forex Strategies

[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

 

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY continued to maintain its range bound price action between 109.70 and 109.07. However, there is a potential for the U.S. dollar to break this range. The bias is balanced at the moment and a breakout or a breakdown from the range could establish the near term direction in the currency pair. To the upside, USDJPY will need to break out convincingly in order for price to retest the resistance level at 110.80. To the downside, below 109.07, USDJPY could be seen pushing lower towards 108 levels. The trend lines are likely to serve as dynamic support and resistance levels as a result.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan next week will see the BoJ’s core CPI coming up. No major changes are expected as Japan continues to struggle to revive inflation. Industrial production numbers will be due later in the week while the final manufacturing PMI for August will be coming up on Friday. Manufacturing sector in Japan has been steadily declining for the past three months. However, it has held steady above the 50 handle which suggests continued growth in the sector. Wrapping up the week, household spending and unemployment rate numbers will be released as well marking a rather busy week for the yen.

Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

The post USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.



from Advanced Forex Strategies

[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD posted strong gains on Friday with the volatility coming on the back of the Jackson Hole Symposium. With Janet Yellen not addressing monetary policy, the U.S. dollar fell sharply. EURUSD broke to the upside breaking out from the range of 1.1825 to rise to highs of 1.1941 by Friday’s close. Further gains can be seen coming with EURUSD likely to test 1.2000 level. There is also a gap at this level that is likely to be filled. In the near term any dips in the euro will make for a good buying opportunity. A retest to the breakout level at 1.1825 remains the most likely price level in EURUSD.

Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from the Eurozone goes into full steam with Friday marking a new trading month. Focus will be on the retail sales and CPI numbers out of Germany which will be key for the markets, especially as the Euro heads into an election month in Germany. France is also expected to come out with the preliminary GDP estimates. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s flash estimates for August will be coming up and data suggests that inflation remained broadly stable. This could potentially confirm the view that the ECB will need to look at tightening monetary policy in the near term. This was also seen by the fact that last week’s flash manufacturing and services PMI suggested a build up of price pressures.

Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017

The post EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.



from Advanced Forex Strategies

[FOREX TIP] Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Sept 2017

The EURUSD has continued to reach fresh new highs for the year, breaching above 1.1900 a level not seen since April 2015. The main driver behind the EURUSD rally is the Fed as they have indicated current economic conditions are supporting another rate hike. So, in essence, this move is not about euro strength, but more about dollar weakness. The ECB is also expected to take a decision on the future of its QE bond buying program. So, there has been speculation that Mario Draghi will announce this autumn to unwind the 2.3 trillion euro bond buying program.

Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Sept 2017

The market focus is now shifting to a new month – September which can provide us with plenty of fundamental drivers that can impact the market volatility and the EURUSD exchange rate. The month of September is set to be a very active month if the current level of volatility will persist, and we can expect even more volatility as now the summer is over and many traders return back to their desks. The curious thing is that September seasonal pattern sees the US dollar falling even further so we don’t have reason to expect the current rally to end anytime soon unless a full-scale risk aversion kicks in, which will be bearish for EURUSD exchange rate. The German election will almost certainly add more spice to the month. So watch out!

The seasonal pattern only gives us the tendency of a particular currency to exhibit a certain behavior at a certain time, so we have to carefully monitor the pattern and how the fundamental forces interact with the price action. Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EURUSD volatility.

“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.” Paul Tudor Jones

Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Sept  2017

 

EURUSD Risk Events

In September we have two main risk events. Firstly, we have the Fed interest rate decision which probably is the last chance for the Fed to signal its intention to stay on track for one more rate hike or to adopt a dovish stance. Secondly, we have the ECB, which can give us some hints on its monetary policy and the QE program. With inflation picking up and the EUR/USD exchange rate moving higher there are high chances the ECB president Mario Draghi to give hints in regard to the start of the tapering process.

  • Friday, September 1, 2017 – First day of the new month will bring the NFP job report, which can be the catalyst for some trend development. We already had two consecutive readings above 200k, but we really need a good number to suggest the Fed will follow through with another rate hike. The unemployment rate is also at 4.3%, a level not seen since before the 2007 crisis.
  • Tuesday, September 5, 2017 – The EU GDP figures will us more insights into the health of the EU economy. The EU economy expanded by 0.6 in the second quarter and currently stands at 2.2% having one of the fastest growth rates among developed economies.
  • Thursday, September 7, 2017 – The ECB rate decision is probably going to set the tone for the EUR/USD exchange rate for the rest of the month. Most Wall Street economists believe the ECB is more likely to give some hints about the future of its QE program.
  • Wednesday, September 13, 2017 – The US PPI figure is another risk event we need to keep an eye on. The PPI figure is Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation. After hitting a high of 2.5% in May inflation has dropped since then significantly to 1.9% below the 2% Fed inflation target.
  • Friday, September 15, 2017 – The US Retail Sales recorded their biggest gain in July, hitting a 7-month high. The growth in consumer spending should be reflected also in the GDP reading for the second quarter, which is expected to be revised higher.
  • Wednesday, September 20, 2017 – The Fed interest rate decision is the most anticipated risk event of the month. Even though the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged what counts the most is Fed’s rhetoric and whether or not it will leave the door opens for another rate hike this year.
  • Sunday, September 24, 2017 – German federal elections are another risk event that we need to keep an eye on. Recent polls show Angel Merkel holding power and winning a comfortable majority against her rival Martin Schulz.
  • Thursday, September 28, 2017 – The US GDP figures is the last risk event for the month. The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6% and recent economic data are supportive for a better GDP reading and possibly a revision higher of the 1.4% growth rate in the second quarter.

The post Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Sept 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.



from Advanced Forex Strategies

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