Saturday, May 6, 2017

[FOREX TIP] Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 8th to 12th May 2017

Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 8th to 12th May 2017

EURUSD finished the week by producing a bullish weekly candle. The pair seems to be bullish as far as the charts are concerned. However, we might see a different picture on Monday when the market starts. The reason behind this is “French Election”. The election is going to take place on Sunday. Thus, the EURO pairs might start the week with huge gap and it could be either a gap up or a gap down depending on who wins the French election. Let us now see other scheduled events in the coming week that will create volatility on the EURUSD.

Wednesday-10th March 2017- 14.30 GMT

  • Crude oil inventories

It normally produces spikes on the intra-day charts. Thus, the trader had better be careful with this news event.

Thursday-11th March 2017-12.30 GMT

  • PPI m/m
  • Unemployment Claims

Both of them are high impact news events. “Unemployment Claims” causes more volatility. This week’s forecast is 245 K. On 04.05.2017 the claim was 238K; on 27.04.2017 the claim was 257K; on 20.04.2017 244K; on 13.04.2017 the claim was 234K; on 06.04.2017 the claim was 34K. On three occasions out of five, the actual claims were lesser than the Forecast. Thus, “Unemployment Claims” suggests that the US job market has been going well.

Friday-12th March 2017- 12.30 GMT

  • CPI m/m
  • Core CPI m/m
  • Core retail sales m/m
  • Retail sales m/m

The data that is released by this news event could create volatility. Intra-day traders should be careful with their opened positions before this news event.

Friday-12th March 2017- 14.00 GMT

  • Prelim Uom consumer sentiment

This is another high impact news event at the time of wrapping up the trading week.

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[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

The AUDUSD bearish trend has resumed and as expected, we retest 0.7400 support level. In a risk on environment as a result of the French election, Aussie can easily gap above the big psychological number 0.7500 and completely reverse the current bearish trend. If Le Pen pulls a surprise victory AUDUSD can lose the year low price 0.7160 and threaten to go beyond the 0.7000 big psychological numbers.Traders need to be aware that in such environment important support and resistance levels are easily overshot.

The Australian economic calendar looks soft with only minor risk events. On Tuesday we have the Retail Sales figures followed by the Annual Budget release. On Friday we also have the G7 meeting in Italy, which will gather together the central bankers from the most industrialized world countries.

Previous AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th May 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th May 2017

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

The USDCAD bullish sequence has held for the previous week as well. The rally was not just pure technical which of course it helped, especially the break above 1.3598 December high, but the sell-off in the energy sector has sustained the Canadian dollar weakness. As long as we stay above 1.3500 we can even see 1.4000 big psychological number and beyond, but it depends on the French election results.

The downside looks more manageable which can be the outcome if Macron wins as the risk in the short-term will be dissipated. The stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory but under current circumstances and in the current macro environment it can’t be that reliable. The Canadian economic calendar looks empty and will not bring anything new to the table, but we should expect the developments in the Oil market to weight on the USDCAD exchange rate.

Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

The GBPUSD technical pattern has been contained inside a narrow range just below the big psychological number 1.3000. The weekly close below 1.3000 resistance level is going to perpetuate the trading range, but this weekend we have the 2nd round of French Presidential election which can change the whole picture. The most recent polls show Macron is still the favorite to become the next French president, which is a positive thing for the markets.

The risk remains to the downside for the markets as we saw with the recent elections around the world the underdog can always pull a surprise win. Macron win is not sealed and the chances remain 50-50. The French election is crucial for the survival of the 28-nation bloc as it can be the catalyst for Frexit and consequently can have the same effect on the financial markets as Brexit did.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD has posted the fourth consecutive bullish weekly candle and in a risk-on environment it can easily gap above 1.3000 and go into 1.3300 and even 1.3500 next resistance levels. However, in a risk-off environment, it’s hard to predict how stronger the sell-off will be. But, we can note the major support levels 1.2500 and more importantly the big psychological number 1.2000 if we go that far down.

While the biggest risk event remains the French elections, we can also note that on the UK economic calendar we have the BOE interest rate decision as well as the Trade balance figures which can be the source of some volatility.

Previous GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

Technical Outlook: USDCHF continued to extend the declines with price closing at support on Friday nar 0.9894 – 0.9861. This is a familiar support that has held out on two other occasions, and it also marks the possible lower highs being formed in price. Thus, in the event of a break down below this support, we can expect the downside to accelerate with USDCHF likely to extend the declines down to 0.9784 followed by the major support at 0.9644. To the upside, only a breakout above the short term pivot high of 0.9966 will confirm some upside in prices.

Fundamental Outlook: USDCHF will be focusing on data from the U.S. this week on lack of any clear events from Switzerland. On Tuesday, the unemployment rate numbers are coming out followed by inflation figures on Thursday. No major changes are expected, but focus will be on the U.S. data which will also see the consumer price index and retail sales numbers coming out on Friday.

Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

Technical Outlook: USDJPY posted a comfortable rally as prices broke past the 111.65 handle last week. The daily charts signal a hidden bearish divergence with the Stochastics printing a higher high against the current lower high in prices. However, the correction could come only on a break down below 111.65. It is advisable to wait on the sidelines and buy the dips in USDJPY. We can expect to see a near term decline towards 110.00 – 110.50 level while to the upside, the long term target remains at 115.00.

Fundamental Outlook: A rather slow week for the Japanese yen with no much of events to focus on. Still the market sentiment could point to a nervous opening on Monday after the French election outcome. As far as economic data is concerned, Japan’s consumer confidence figures are due on Monday while the wage growth data is due out on Tuesday. The average cash earnings could offer some insights into any underlying wage pressures over the month.

Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

Technical Outlook: EURUSD maintained its bullish track last week as prices broke above the 1.0950 handle and is now within reach of testing the $1.1000 price level. The gains in the euro came on hawkish comments from ECB officials who said that interest rates could begin to rise if the Eurozone recovery continues at the current pace. The euro is also lifted by the fact that the French election outcome is showing a Macron victory.

However, technically, EURUSD is at risk of a downside correction. Watch the support level at 1.0950 which will now be critical. A close below this level could validate the rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart for EURUSD. The Stochastics is also printing a bearish divergence here. A break down below 1.0950 will signal a move towards 1.0735.

Fundamental Outlook: The euro will be most likely looking to another volatile open this Monday after Sunday’s final round of elections from France. It is going to be a face-off between Macron and Le Pen and the markets are currently in favor of a Macron victory which is already priced in. Unless the elections pose a surprise result which will be announced on Sunday at 2000 CET, the euro could be looking to open Monday with some gains. On the economic front, the eurozone takes a back seat with only the German factory orders due on Monday. On Friday, Germany’s preliminary GDP numbers for the first quarter will be coming out.

Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th May 2017

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[FOREX TIP] Keep Your Losses Small in Forex Trading

Unfortunately, many people think that trading Forex is an easy route to millions of dollars because some $19.95 eBook told them so. Those types of publications talk about the potential winning trades you can make, but few will even mention the potential losses.

Keep Your Losses Small in Forex Trading

As an example of a winning trade, let’s say the EURUSD contract is trading at 1.2500. You believe the Euro is going to increase in value, so you buy a contract for 100 000 Euros and sell $100 000 USD (this will require a deposit of about $1000 of your own money). After a few hours, your prediction is correct, and the value of the contract goes to 1.2510, making 10 pips profit. Because it was a $100 000 contract each pip is worth $10, therefore you made a profit of $100 on your $1000 deposit. A 10% profit is pretty good for a few hours’ work!

However, what do you do if the value of the contract goes to 1.2490? This means that you lose $100 or a 10% loss on your $1000 deposit. Uh oh, how many of these losses can you sustain? On a small account of $1000, not many! Therefore, the key to successful Forex trading is that you need to keep your losses to a minimum, as you WILL make losses eventually.

The only way to guarantee never to lose money in Forex trading is to never trade at all. The one thing that few dodgy Forex eBook sellers mention in their book is that losses can occur, and they WILL occur to everyone. Here are some ways to minimize your losses in Forex trading.

Have a Trading Plan

Most losing Forex traders do not have a trading plan for what to do if they make a losing trade. They simply hold on to their losing position in hopes that it will come back. Most times, their losses can’t be sustained by their accounts, and therefore they end up losing everything. The smart traders that make millions trading Forex have a trading plan that tells them what to do if they start making a loss.

This usually means getting out of a trade very quickly if it is not performing, thus minimizes their losses. These good traders have no problems whatsoever admitting they made a losing trade. In fact, they will probably tell you they make twice as many losing trades as they do with winning trades. So how do they make money? Simple, one of their winning trades may make ten times the amount of one of their losing trades because they kept their losing trades small. Therefore, put your pride away and learn to accept a losing trade quickly!

Practice makes perfect

Most online Forex brokers will allow you to practice your trading first. Each broker has slightly different procedures for entering and exiting trades based on their software, so it’s best to practice first. This means that they can set up a practice account with $10 000 (or some other amount) of hypothetical money, where you can watch and study their charts and make trades with this “money” as if it was your own.

By far, it is the best way of learning how the markets move and you can test any trading techniques you come up with. By doing this, you will learn so much, as it’s like learning how to trade using someone else’s money and there is no risk of a real loss (or a real profit either)

Have a Large Trading account

Once you have practiced trading Forex and gained confidence in your trading ability by using an online brokerage’s software and hypothetical money, you may feel it is time to use your own money. You should have as large an account as possible. “Large” here doesn’t mean a millions of dollars. If your broker requires a deposit of $1000 for each $100 000 of a currency your trade, why not have $10 000 in your account. That way, if you lose 50 pips (i.e. $500); you have only lost 5% of your total money instead of 50% if you only had $1000 in your account. If you don’t have $10000 to trade, the next tip may help you out.

Choosing a Lower Leverage Level

This will be very helpful for those people who may have only $1000 (or less) to trade. Most Forex brokers will give you a leverage ratio of 100:1 and the standard contract is for $100 000. This means that the lots they trade in are $100 000. Meaning that for every pip (i.e. 0.0001 increase/decrease in the currency pair), you make/lose $10. However, what has become popular today are called “mini contracts”, where the broker trades in lots of $10 000. This means that for every pip, you only make $1.

This is a good place for either inexperienced or under-capitalized traders to start. Therefore, if you only had $1000 in your account and you were trading a mini account and you lost 50 pips, you have only lost $50. Not too bad, but it also means that if you made 50 pips, you only made $50. At the end of the day, your losses are kept to a minimum and you can stay in the game longer.

Believe it or not, there are even some brokers who deal in “micro lots”, which means that each pip is only worth $0.10. Your losses will be kept to an even smaller level while you are learning, so you can approach trading with a clear head and not worrying about losing your shirt!

The key to successful Forex trading isn’t about always making winning trades. If you trade Forex, you WILL make losing trades, and anyone (or Forex eBook you bought online) who tells you differently is lying. The key to successful Forex trading is simply to minimize your losses. By minimizing your losses, you stay in “the game” for longer. If you are still in the game, your next trade may make you ten times (or more) than all of your losing trades combined.


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[FOREX TIP] 5 Simple Steps to Successful Forex Trading

The most common mistakes made in Currency Trading can be directly linked to a few basic misunderstandings of the market.

We’re flooded with information and opinions, and unfortunately for you and me, there are no magic wands to reveal who is genuinely looking out for our best interests. Everyone is out to make a buck, and sometimes the little guy can get swallowed in the waves created by the giants.

5 Simple Steps to Successful Forex Trading

It’s human nature to let your emotions influence your decisions. Fear of losing money, greed and the “what if’s” all can shift your viewpoint, and the correct decision can be lost along the way. We’ve all lost money in the forex right? It’s the promise of getting out of the drudgery of 9-5, of a secure and comfortable way of life, managed from your laptop, which draws us all like moths to a bright light. What you need is a plan, a step by step formula to wade your way through the inconsistencies, the half-truths, and just the plain out incorrect.

Step 1 – Foundation

Trading is a business, whether you plan on entering full time or just starting a part time venture. All the rules of successful businesses apply – you need to make a plan and follow through.

Ask yourself important questions – How much time can I wait for profit? Can I wait 6 months and follow the trend, or do I need to be out every day? How much time can I invest daily? Can I afford to sit in front of the computer screen for 6 hours, waiting for the perfect volatile moment? Can I automate, and trust someone else’s opinion to make my decisions for me? Do I want to spend the time to have mastery over currency trading, or would I prefer to use the expertise of someone who’s been there?

We’ve all heard stories of traders who just want to get out there, let experience teach them – and we all know the endings to such stories (unpleasant to say the least). It is VITAL for the success of your trading that you have a solid foundation and plan, and that you stick to it under all conditions. It’s very easy to go out of your business model “just this once”, and have it end in spectacular failure. Develop an execution plan. Buy or sell under those conditions, no exceptions.

Step 2 – Trading Plan

Write everything down. You can’t control the markets, you can’t control the price action – you can only control your participation. You need to set a regular time to sit down and review your positions and systems, and write that down. Find what it is that you need to become a disciplined proactive trader in the forex currency exchange market. You need to write your plan down, and write your results down, so you can learn what your winning behavior is and what your losing behavior is.

Maybe you’re going to paper trade for 30 days, maybe join a trading group by November this year, maybe read two books by the end of the month, it doesn’t matter. Without records to review, you cannot know what is working for you.

It is easier to write successful rules, if you have documentation showing what is working for you and what is not. Make note of your time invested in the behavior, the number of winners/losers, amount won/lost. You can use this to plan your successful trading, which works right for you, the individual.

Step 3 – Paper Trading

Paper trading is generally the first port of call for those trying to learn currency trading. However it can be dangerous, as it can give a false sense of security. Your psychological viewpoint will not be the same if you’re not risking anything, therefore your decision making will be different than if it was in real time.

You’re not exposed to the real emotions of trading, because there is no risk. Paper trading can help you get familiar with your platform; make sure that your mistakes are not going to be common errors from software. In order to really learn, however, you need to be doing it out in the real world, where your fears can influence your choices.

Step 4 – Real Time – Get in!

Your ultimate goal is to have a bank account that’s growing, right? In order to do that, you need to start trading. We know that you can’t pretend to trade. It’s important for you to get some real, emotional, and psychological experience of trading under your belt, so you can make educated decisions. You will have losses. Nobody has 100% winning trades, and there is no system or set of rules that will give you a guarantee.

Your goal with trading is to get in touch with what you personally need to learn to be successful. What is it that let you down with that trade? Write it down, document it, and work out a plan to get past it. You will only learn your strengths and weaknesses after you have some real time forex experience. Every successful trader has had to face whatever it is that holds them back.

Step 5 – Get Help

Find a community of traders or like minded individuals who will empower you to make the right decisions. It will help you stay focused and disciplined on what really matters. Learn from their mistakes by observing how others trade and the problems that they have faced. You will avoid costly errors this way. Share your experience with others, on a web forum, seminar, or trading group, and you will reap the reward of their shared information and education. Build on their success, and remember – all successful people in any profession share their knowledge.

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