Saturday, January 21, 2017

[FOREX FORECAST] USDCHF Weekly – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

Technical Outlook: USDCHF failed to rally back to 1.0188 and instead closed on Friday on a bearish note at 1.0020. A bearish follow through from here could signal further declines towards 0.9934 support while the evolving head and shoulders pattern would be invalidated. However, there is a risk of a pullback considering the fact that USDCHF is near the lower median line where the dynamic support can be found. Therefore, it is best to stay on the sidelines and look for potential selling opportunities from around 1.0188 while looking for possible buying opportunities near 0.9934.

Fundamental Outlook: A slow week from Switzerland, economic data is mostly confined to the UBS consumption indicator and trade balance figures, both of which are unlikely to make much of an impact on the Swiss franc. This would leave much of the heavy lifting to the market sentiment and the U.S. dollar. On the U.S. economic calendar this week, focus will be on Friday where the preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter will be released. Economists are hoping that the U.S. economy increased 2.1% in the fourth quarter, which is slightly lower than 3.5% in the third quarter.

Previous USDCHF Weely Forex Forecast

TLDR: Bearish

from Advanced Forex Strategies

[FOREX FORECAST] USDJPY Weekly – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

Technical Outlook: USDJPY retraced last week as noted but the depth of the retracement has been shallow. Price retraced to only near 115.35 rather than the expected 116.00 level. Still, the retracement came on a hidden bearish divergence back to the support level which was tested for resistance. The following declines will now likely to continue towards the previous low formed near 112.70. Failure to decline to 112.70 could mean a sharper correction. Therefore, if USDJPY pulls back above 115.35 then expect the gains to push the dollar towards 116.00 – 116.50 region. Alternately, to the downside, look for USDJPY to retest 112.70 with the potential to post new declines down to 111.275 marking the initial support level.

Fundamental Outlook: A busy week from Japan next week, economic data focuses on preliminary PMI numbers for the month of January. Later in the week, inflation figures will be coming out. The BoJ’s measure of core CPI is expected to continue to remain weak, rising only 0.1%, compared to the 0.2% increase seen the month before. The Tokyo core CPI and the national core CPI are both forecast to continue to decline. However, there could be an upside surprise considering that higher energy prices have sent inflation higher across some of the major economies.

Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast

TLDR: Bearish

from Advanced Forex Strategies

[FOREX FORECAST] EURUSD Weekly – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

Technical Outlook: EURUSD has been trading within 1.0700 and 1.0600 last week with another brief test to the support level at 1.0615 – 1.0600. However, this multiple bounce to the support has failed to bring any significant new highs in prices. The bullish flag pattern remains in play although there is scope for EURUSD to correct to the downside in the near term especially after price has broken out from the rising median line. Look for a reversal near 1.0700 in EURUSD which could mean a short term correction back to 1.0615 – 1.0600. A break below this support will extend the declines towards 1.0450. To the upside, if price continues to push higher, then watch for a continuation towards 1.0785, marking the completion of the bullish flag pattern.

Fundamental Outlook: It is a fairly quiet week for the eurozone with most of the economic data focusing on the flash PMI figures. Economists are expecting to see a broad pickup in activity across the board, which is likely to see further evidence of a recovery in the eurozone’s economy. Besides the flash PMI figures, the Ifo business climate data is also coming out this week and is expected to show another positive reading which will also point to the improving economic sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone. With no major market moving events coming up next week, the EURUSD is likely to take its clues from the larger market themes.

Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 23rd to 27th Jan 2017

from Advanced Forex Strategies

[FOREX 101] Flexing to build your trader's muscles

Just like exercise, there are things to do daily until it becomes a habit.

The key is to develop an efficient daily routine of market analysis. Thanks to the Internet and online currency brokerages, independent traders can access a variety of information.

Your daily regimen of market analysis should focus on:

  • Overnight forex market developments: Who said what, which data came out, and how the currency pairs reacted.  
  • Daily updates of other major market movements over the prior 24 hours and the stories behind them: If oil prices or U.S. Treasury yields rose or fell substantially, find out why.  
  • Data releases and market events (for example, the retail sales report, Fed speeches, central bank rate announcements) expected for that day: Ideally, you’ll monitor data and event calendars one week in advance, so you can be anticipating the outcomes along with the rest of the market.  
  • Multiple-time-frame technical analysis of major currency pairs: There is nothing like the visual image of price action to fill in the blanks of how data and news affected individual currency pairs.  
  • Current events and geopolitical themes: Stay abreast on issues of major elections, political scandals, military conflicts, and policy initiatives in the major currency nations.

So many things can affect currency prices. Most listed above are part of the fundamentals. There's also the technical aspect of analysis.

Let's talk about that on the next post.

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