USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st Dec 2018 to 4th Jan 2019
Fundamentals Outlook
The economic data for the week ahead will see the markets looking to a new trading week of the year. Data from the U.S. is particularly busy. The week starts off with the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports coming out. Economists forecast that manufacturing activity will decline following various regional indicators showing a decrease in manufacturing activity. Later in the week, the U.S. jobs report is due starting with ADP/Moody’s private payrolls report. This is later followed by the official non-farm payrolls report for the month of December.
From the Eurozone, economic data pertains to the manufacturing and services PMI reports. The reports cover the month of December and investors will be keen to see how the economy fared during the last month of the year. Data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet for the most part this week. However, year end flows could bring some volatility to the markets.
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Chart set up: The USDJPY currency pair continued to extend declines last week as price action settled near the lower support area of 110.50. A brief consolidation around this area saw the currency pair establishing the support level rather firmly. Despite the decline below the 110.50 level, we expect that price action could be biased to the upside.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 110.50; Resistance: 111.78
Commentary:
The 4-hour Stochastic oscillator has posted a bullish divergence near the lows. This could potentially indicate an upside momentum in price action as a result. The previously breached support at 111.78 remains a key level of interest. If the upside rally will fail to breakout above this level, then the USDJPY currency pair could be seen holding a flat range within the said levels. Above 111.78, the currency pair will face resistance at the 112.74 level. However, for the near term, we expect the USDJPY to maintain the range within 111.78 resistance and 110.50 support. The USDJPY could be seen trading to the upside in the very short term but holding a flat range in the medium term.
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