[FOREX TIP] Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Nov 2017

Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Nov  2017

The EURUSD rally has finally seen a pullback as the big psychological number 1.2000 has proven to provide a good catalyst for the bullish trend to take a pause. The main driver behind the EURUSD pullback was the grown speculations that the Fed might proceed forward and hike rates one more time until the 2017 end. The market has been speculating that the ECB will announce this autumn the tapering process of the 2.3 trillion euro bond buying program, but the ECB rhetoric has failed to gain traction behind this market theme.

The market focus is now shifting to a new month – November which can provide us with plenty of fundamental drivers that can impact the market volatility and the EURUSD exchange rate. The November economic calendar has scheduled plenty risk events that can be the catalyst for some volatility. Both the ECB and the Fed have important interest rates and monetary policy announcements. The Fed has one of the last chances to signal its willingness to hike one more time until the end of the year.

The Fed funds rate is only projecting rates to hike in December but we can still see the dollar getting traction in anticipation of higher interest rates. The November seasonal pattern sees the EURUSD exchange rate slowly drifting lower and its possible the current retracement to have more legs to the downside if the fundamentals support the bearish case.

The seasonal pattern only gives us the tendency of a particular currency to exhibit a certain behavior at a certain time, so we have to carefully monitor the pattern and how the fundamental forces interact with the price action. Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EURUSD volatility.

“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.” Paul Tudor Jones

Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Nov  2017

The Catalan independence issue has failed so far to provide us with a market theme that can drive the currency exchange rate in a significant manner. Spain is already facing one of the most severe constitutional crises and as soon as the other market participants start to recognize this, expects the market to also pay attention.

As long as the EURUSD exchange stays below the big round number 1.2000, it’s not wrong to expect the bearish momentum to continue to dominate during the coming month. We have plenty of risk events that have the potential to set the stage for big movements in the Forex market and here are the most notable ones:

• Wednesday, November 1, 2017 –The Fed interest rate decision is scheduled right on the first day of the new trading month. The Fed has signaled that the interest rates will continue to go higher and it seems that the most powerful central bank in the world is committed to the idea of reducing its balance sheet. While the rates are expected to be kept on hold at November’s meeting, expect the Fed to signal that they will rise one more time in December which can be a strong bullish catalyst for the US dollar.
• Friday, November 3, 2017 – The NFP report is the highlight of the day. After a disastrous -33k NFP reading the market consensus is for a positive NFP figure of 160k. We can also expect a revision higher of the previous reading. The unemployment rate is expected to come flat at 4.2%, the lowest level since December 2000.
• Monday, November 6, 2017 – Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is expected to deliver a speech to the Center for the Study of Democracy. The topic of her speech will be Economic Inequality in the United State.
• Wednesday, November 15, 2017 – The EUGDP figures for the 2017 3rd quarter are scheduled to be released. According to the IMF upgraded forecast the European Union economic growth is projected to be in the vicinity of 2.1%.
• Wednesday, November 15, 2017 – The US CPI inflation figures are another major risk event. The US inflation rose by 0.5% in the previous month while the CPI annualized rate stands at 2.2%. The elevated levels of inflation will likely keep the Fed on track to raise rates one more time this year.
• Wednesday, November 22 – The FOMC minutes will give us further clues into the Fed’s monetary policy.
• Wednesday, November 29, 2017 – The US GDP figures for the 2017 3^rd quarter are scheduled to be released. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.4% which weaker than the Q2 reading of 3.1% increase.

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[FOREX TIP] Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

EURUSD had a strong bearish week. The next week might be very volatile since there are some high impact news events to take place. Let us have a look at those news events.

Tuesday-31^st October- 14.00 GMT

• CB consumer confidence

It often sweeps away intraday stop losses by producing long spikes on the intraday charts.

Wednesday-1^st November-12.15 GMT

• ADP Non-Farm employment change

Usually, it produces some excellent trading opportunities. Those opportunities can be found; once the market is settled.

Wednesday-1^st November-14.00 GMT

• ISM manufacturing PMI

This is another news event, which produces volatility on the intraday charts.

Wednesday-1^st November-14.30 GMT

• Crude oil inventories

It does not always create huge volatility, but it could make the pair be extremely volatile. EURUSD traders should be careful with their intraday floating positions before this news event.

Wednesday-1^st November-18.00 GMT

• FOMC statement
• Federal funds rate

Surely, the EURUSD is going to be extremely volatile for these two news events. Needless to say that major time frame traders will use the volatility to take their entries.

Thursday-2^nd November- 12.30 GMT

• Unemployment claims

Intraday traders should come out with their opened positions before this news event.

Friday-3^rd November-12.30 GMT

• Average hourly earnings m/m
• Non-Farm employment change
• Unemployment change

No doubt, this would be an extremely volatile day for the EURUSD traders. Major time frame traders will be eagerly waiting to see which it goes since they might use these news event to take the best entry of the month.

Friday-3^rd November-14.00 GMT

• ISM manufacturing PMI

Might not be that volatile, but intraday charts could end up having some long spikes for this news event.

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[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

The Aussie like all the other commodity currencies has been weakening against the greenback. Since the stochastic indicator is already moving away from the oversold conditions we can expect at least a retest of the former support level 0.7730 which should now act as resistance. However, a break and a daily close above this level will open the door for more strength towards 0.7800.

On the downside, only a break and a daily close below 0.7624 will add more fuel to the sell-off but, until then we can expect more ranging activity as we already move to fast in a very short period of time. The Australian economic calendar is packed with only modest risk events. First, we have the Trade Balance figures scheduled on Thursday but we also have the Retail sales on Friday. On top of that we can also note some proxy-risk events from China, which have the potential to stir some volatility.

Previous AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

The USDCAD had an impressive rally but is an unsustained rally as the big picture trend is still bearish. Last week high 1.2916 is expected now to hold any upside move and any rally above it should quickly fade away. The stochastic indicator is in deep overbought conditions so it’s wise to expect a sell-off early in the week. On the downside we have the intraday support level 1.2800 but, more importantly we have the more significant 1.2663 level.

In terms of risk events the Canadian economic calendar will bring the monthly GDP figures on Tuesday. The Unemployment rate and the labor statistic figures are on the docket on the last day of the week. On Friday we also have the NFP report which is obviously a big risk event that can generate lots of volatility. The NFP figures are expected to see a big jump to 300k new jobs added while the unemployment rate is expected to come flat at 4.2%.

Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

The GBPUSD doesn’t have any clear direction as for the last four weeks has been moving in a very wide range between support level 1.3100 and resistance level 1.3350. As long as we’re trading within the limits of this price range we should expect more ranging activity. The price structure might suggest that the bears can have an attempt to test the big psychological number 1.3000. A break and a close below the round number 1.3000 can shift the balance more in favor of the bearish case and open the door for a retest of at least the 1.2900 figure. However since the stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory we can expect early in the week a retest of 1.3150 now becoming a new resistance.

The UK economic calendar will bring one of the most awaited BOE interest rate decision. We don’t have a consensus but the BOE can really hike the interest rates for the first time since the 2007 financial crisis. We also have the Fed interest rate decision, but the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 1.25% and only hike one more time during the December meeting.

Previous GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

Technical Outlook: The USDCHF successfully breached the resistance level at 0.9884 last week. Price action briefly reached parity before pulling back lower towards the opening price level. The upside in USDCHF has been established for now. We expect USDCHF to retrace some of these gains and test the 0.9894 level of support in the short term. Upon a successful test of support, USDCHF could be aiming to test the next main resistance level at 1.0088. This could however keep USDCHF trading sideways within the new range. Only a successful breakout above 1.0088 will see further gains coming its way.

Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from Switzerland this week is relatively quiet. Only the manufacturing PMI due on Wednesday and Friday’s retail sales numbers will be of some importance. Focus will turn to the U.S. dollar which looks to a busy week. Data includes the monhly ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI as well as the ADP’s private payrolls numbers. This will culminate with Friday’s official payroll data for the month of October. Following the weaker than expected decline in jobs in September, the markets will be looking for an upbeat print this week.

Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY has managed to gradually push higher. However, the resistance near 114.00 – 114.50 is proving to be tough to breach. Therefore, we expect USDJPY to post some declines in the near term. The most ideal downside target will be near 113.00 price handle. This comes due to the confluence of both the horizontal support level as well as the rising trend line. Price action is expected to remain limited for the moment. However, expect steeper declines to 110.91 if USDJPY breaches this initial support level that will be tested for the first time. Previously 113.00 served as resistance and the gradual breach of this resistance level will now see a test of support. Expect further gains only on a successful test of the support level, failing which USDJPY could either risk some declines or stay range bound at the levels.

Fundamental Outlook: The new week will put focus on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting this week that is due to be held on Tuesday. Following the re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the BoJ is expected to maintain its monetary policy unchanged. In the last month’s meeting, the BoJ had remained doubtful on the inflation forecasts. No changes are expected with the BoJ’s meeting likely to remain on the sidelines at this week’s event. Besides the BoJ’s meeting, other key data points this week includes the BoJ’s core CPI data and the final manufacturing PMI.

Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD extended strong losses last week following the ECB’s decision to taper and extend the duration. We now expect further declines in EURUSD that could see price action falling to the 1.1500 level in the near term. However, there is a possibility for the euro to retest the recently breached support level at 1.1691 where resistance could be established. If EURUSD posts a reversal at this level, we could expect the declines to continue. The reversal at 1.1691 is also likely to attract new sellers into the market which could see price eventually sliding towards 1.1600 followed by the longer term target towards 1.1500. However, the upside risks could build up if EURUSD manages to post a bounce above 1.1691. In this case, price action could turn sideways within 1.1765 and 1.1691 levels.

Fundamental Outlook: Following a volatile week last week thanks to the ECB’s meeting, the euro will be looking to take a breather heading into the final week of October and the beginning of November. Economic data for the most part this week will be focusing on the manufacturing and services PMI data due to come out. The German retail sales and inflation figures will also be on the cards. Most importantly, the Eurozone’s economic forecasts and flash inflation estimates will be the main data points of interest that could shape the direction of the currency pair in the short term.

Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017

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Where to Trade Bitcoin? Brokerage Apps Move In Amid Cryptocurrency Market Boom

 

Established brokers and startups want in on the crypto boom – but, Trading 212 is a bit of both.

Founded by Bulgarians Ivan Ashminov and Boris Nedialkov, Trading 212 is the trade name for Avus Capital, a broker-dealer with roots going back 14 years in foreign exchange and commodities dealing in Europe. But while the company isn't exactly new, what it's doing with share trading and cryptocurrencies is – and it seems to be generating success so far.

Its app is the most-downloaded trading app in the UK, with the company now providing a full-blown trading operation, with markets in some 2,500 instruments, ranging from shares to commodities.

In June this year, however, Trading 212 took a bold step in adding cryptocurrencies to the mix, helping it to attract a younger crowd – the millennials – broking industry incumbents are finding hard to reach. These are the consumers who grew up against the background of the 2008 financial crisis, and as a consequence, are inclined to see financial service companies as the bad guys.

And while U.S. fintech startups Invstr and Kapitall are targeting the same demographic of 20-something financial cynics, they don't yet have the "magic sauce" of crypto to sell on their shelves. For the likes of Trading 212, crypto is a way of further enhancing its appeal to new users.

But the question is: just how effective has this push been?

No hard figures

Nick Saunders, chief executive of Trading 212's UK operation, won't say for sure.

In interview, Saunders was cagey about disclosing exact figures on how much crypto constitutes in terms of its overall business, although he described the contribution as "significant."

"We'd rather not share the exact numbers but it is [a few percent] of the combined volume generated by all exchanges, which is quite a lot for a single retail broker," he said.

Still, Saunders did suggest that Trading 212 is benefiting from the wave of new attention cryptocurrencies have received in 2017. After rising from under $10 billion at the start of the year, the total value of the combined market has risen to more than $170 billion.

In short, it's showing all the attributes of a hot market that's generating returns.

Saunders continued:

"Clients numbers are always driven by volatility and the news. When the two combine and bitcoin price rises make headline news, this drives new clients to open accounts."

Options and options

It doesn't hurt that Trading 212's app, honed for more mainstream tastes, is slick.

The app includes a real-time chat facility in a link-up with TradeBird – a trading-focused social network set-up by Trading 212's founders; accessible educational tools and regular cryptocurrencies analysis, which has all helped it to attract a growing audience.

Even before it offered crypto, Trading 212 caught imaginations when it came up with a freemium model for share trading, in which customers get commission-free dealing for up to 10 trades a month, up to a maximum value of £10,000 per trade.

The company estimates that 90% of its equity customers will pay nothing at all, with the 10% of high-rolling "whales" delivering its revenue stream.

Perhaps propelling its growth among more seasoned cryptocurrency traders, though, is that it has also added a swath of available options from the asset class. Customers can deal not just in bitcoin and ether, the two largest cryptos by market cap, but in ripple, bitcoin cash, dash, monero and neo.

Saunders revealed to CoinDesk that Trading 212 plans to add a further 14 currencies in November – ethereum classic, zcash, qtum, omisego, iota, eos, lisk, augur, cardano, waves, stratis, ark, steem and stratis.

Making markets

Apart from that, Saunders is pledging the app can "remove all the complexity and risk" of owning cryptocurrencies, which today often involves storing or managing a set of cryptographic keys (or trusting someone else to do so), by using contract for differences (CFDs).

A type of financial instrument made to mirror an underlying asset, the use of the tool means that trading crypto on the platform does not involve buying the claims to those keys, as you would on a crypto exchange such as Bitfinex, the marker leader by volume.

But, CFDs have a downside, too, in that trading isn't yet available in the U.S.

CDFs involve trading on margin, which has the effect of magnifying gains but also losses and is why the SEC has taken it upon itself to protect traders by banning CFDs.

Still, Trading212 has made other tweaks to its service to accommodate cryptocurrencies.

For one, it has a Bitcoin Mini market that quotes a price one-tenth the value of bitcoin, which they believe makes opening a position much more manageable and possible less scary. (Saunders says the average deal size for bitcoin is around £10,000.)

As with fiat currency or share trading, stop loses can also be set so you get to sleep at night without worrying if the South Koreans are about to start selling bitcoin big time.

Trading 212's killer feature, though, is perhaps the fact that on its crypto markets you can "sell" coins as well as buy. This provides novice and experienced users alike with a way to “short” the market if they think prices are going to fall. As ever with trading, it’s all about the timing.

Bigger wave

Elsewhere, other CFD, spread betting and forex brokers have been getting in on the action.

Avatrade.com and Trade.com are two forex brokers trying their hand at crypto. Another is InterTrader, which provides dealing in bitcoin and ether, and is currently giving away 1 ether to anyone opening a new account and trading a stake worth a minimum of €500.

And then there’s UK spread-betting behemoth IG Group, which was the first to offer CFD and spread-betting bitcoin products. Shai Heffetz, managing director at InterTrader is a long-time bitcoin believer, stating: "There is no doubt virtual currencies are going to play a significant role in the future of the economy."

A new kid on the block is a trading app from startup Bux, positioning itself as a "millennial financial brand," is trying to make headway by turning stock investing into a game with virtual trading, hoping to convert its young customer base to funding their accounts with real money.

Of its 200,000 UK users, Bux claims 85,000 are now using real money. Its app, with a design look-and-feel that evokes then Grand Theft Auto video game, and judging from the stream showing what app users are trading, bitcoin is one of the more popular trades among its client base.

Still, the likes of Coinbase notwithstanding, buying and securing your crypto is not seen as a straightforward matter by most ordinary folk.

Yet, as interest in crypto grows, the new breed of trading apps from Trading 212 (and others) show there's a big market for more familiar ways to gain exposure.

CryptoCurrency News: Desperately Seeking Devs: How to Fill Bitcoin's Talent Shortage

Jimmy Song explains why there's a shortage of developers in the bitcoin community, why that's a problem and how the industry is addressing it.

via CoinDesk