Sunday, July 30, 2017

[FOREX TIP] GBPCAD Price Action Analysis – 27th July 2017

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GBPCAD Price Action Analysis – 27th July 2017

GBPCAD has been having a strong bearish trend on the Daily chart. The price has been choppy on the H4 and H1 chart. However, today’s price action suggests that the price might head towards the South if we have a breakout on the downside. Let us have a look at the H1 GBPCAD chart…

Have a look at the resistance zone. So far, the level of 1.63460 has been the resistance level, but the price might go further up to 1.63580. It does not matter from which level out of these two, but as long as we get a breakout at 1.63050, then an H1 reversal candle right at that level, then selling the pair would get us some green pips later today. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…

Sell Stop Order: 1.63050
Stop Loss Level: 1.63600
Take Profit Target: 1.62400
Validity: 72 hours
Whenever possible, move the stop loss to the entry price and whenever you want, you can take profit anytime as long as you feel comfortable

Last night’s FOMC minute gave the USD another big shake. Today the USD pairs have to encounter another high impact news event at 12.30 GMT. Thus, traders should be careful for taking entries on USD pairs before the news event today. It would be best for the traders that they take entries after today’s news event. If the signal (today’s GBPCAD trade setup) comes before the news event, then it should come at least 2 hours before the news event takes place since the CAD is highly correlated with the USD.

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Price Action Analysis – 26th July 2017

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USDJPY Price Action Analysis – 26th July 2017

USDJPY has been having a long downward correction on the H4 chart. The price has been within a down trending channel. However, the channel got broken. Yesterday’s daily candle has come out as a good-looking bullish candle, which engulfed the previous daily candle. Thus, eying to take a long entry on the pair might get us some green pips today. Let us have a look at the H4-USDJPY chart…

USDJPY Price Action Analysis – 26th July 2017

See that the pair has been uptrending after breaking the down trending line. The price got a rejection from 112.080 and the level of 111.800 has the potential to be a level of support. If 111.800 level is held and we get a breakout at 112. 080, then buying the pair should get us some green pips. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…

Buy Stop Order: 112.100
Stop Loss Level: 111.800
Take Profit Target: 112.500
Validity: 72 hours
Whenever possible, move the stop loss to the entry price and whenever you want, you can take profit anytime as long as you feel comfortable

Here the H4 chart suggests that the price was in downtrend. However, if you have a look at the Daily chart, then you will see that the price had been on a correction. The H4 downtrend line got broken as well. Thus, it would be a better idea to wait for a buy signal here. What I mean to say is the Daily chart has the upper hand over the H4 chart. Moreover, last trading day’s candle plays an important role too. We need to consider these things on a chart before taking any entry.

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We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 25th July 2017

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[FOREX TIP] EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 25th July 2017

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EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 25th July 2017

EURGBP has been on a buy trend on the Daily and the H4 chart. The price has been on correction on the short time frame. However, today’s price action suggests that the price might have found its support level. Thus, if we get a breakout towards the upside, then the pair might offer us a long entry with excellent risk and reward ratio. Let us have a look at the H1 EURGBP chart…

EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 25th July 2017

See the corrective wave after some strong bullish momentum on the H1 chart. The level of 0.89300 has shown the potential to be a level of support so far. If the level drives the price towards the North and makes a breakout at 0.89550, then the pair might head towards the North to make new higher high.

Buy Stop Order: 0.89550
Stop Loss Level: 0.89100
Take Profit Target: 0.90200
Validity: 72 hours
Whenever possible, move the stop loss to the entry price and whenever you want, you can take profit anytime as long as you feel comfortable

For the last 5/6 weeks, most of the pairs have been choppy. The pairs that were having trend, they mainly moved according to the short time frames such as H1, M30 and M15 etc. I mean to say short time frames offered more entries than the time frames such as the H4 or the Daily chart. This means when the pairs start squeezing, we might have to move to short time frames for taking entry. Switching time frame is not easy; it does need a lot of practice. As a trader, we make sure that we do the practice for switching time frame on our demo account first.

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[FOREX TIP] EURJPY Price Action Analysis – 24th July 2017

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EURJPY Price Action Analysis – 24th July 2017

EURJPY has been in a strong bull trend on the H4 chart. The pair kept making higher high until it found a level of resistance at 130.450 area. Then, the pair started having correction to find a strong level or support to make a new higher high. It seems that the pair has found a level of support today. Let us have a look at the H1 EURJPY chart…

EURJPY Price Action Analysis – 24th July 2017

See how the price reacted at the level of 129.300. This was a level of resistance earlier, which got broken by that massive H1 bullish candle. If the price starts moving towards the North from this level and makes a breakout at 129.700, then buying the pair would get us some green pips today. We should wait for a pullback though after the breakout. It means we are waiting for an ABC pattern here. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…

Buy Stop Order: 129.700
Stop Loss level: 129.300
Take Profit Target: 130.600
Validity: 72 hours
Whenever possible, move the stop loss to the entry price and whenever you want, you can take profit anytime as long as you feel comfortable

There is a good chance that the price might continue its journey towards the North if it makes a breakout at the H4 resistance. However, since we are going to take our entry on the H1 chart, the best thing to do would be coming out with the profit at 130.600. Yes, we can run a portion of the trade (partial trade) by setting our stop loss at the breakeven level after taking at least 50% profit of the trade.

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[FOREX TIP] Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – August 2017

The EURUSD rallied to fresh 2.6 year high a move that was partially driven by the ECB signals that it can start tapering its massive 2.3 trillion euro bond buying program and partially because of weaker US economic data and lower US inflation. The US Dollar index also dropped to a 13-month low a move that was triggered on the back of the Fed dovish tone in regard to the inflation forecasts.

The focus now is shifting to the month of August which can provide us with plenty of fundamental drivers that can impact the market volatility and the EURUSD exchange rate.

The month of August is set to be a very active month if the current level of volatility will persist, but we still need to be aware of the summer trading conditions which can impact the market volatility. The seasonal pattern for August sees the EUR/USD exchange rate moving aggressively to the downside. The probabilities are that EUR/USD will give back some of the recent gains and retrace.

The seasonal pattern only gives us the tendency of a particular currency to exhibit a certain behavior at a certain time, so we have to carefully monitor the pattern and how the fundamental forces interact with the price action.

Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EUR/USD volatility.

“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.” Paul Tudor Jones

Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – August 2017

The month of August will certainly bring the same level of anxiety among traders as we had in the previous month and this alone can be the catalyst for the EURUSD to exhibit higher volatility. The two main risk events are the Fed interest rate decision which is highly expected to hold rates while on the other side of the monetary policy spectrum we have the ECB interest rate decision. Both major central banks will need to clarify further their monetary policy stance and more insights are expected into the timing of the ECB tapering process.

Monday, August 1, 2017 – First trading day of the months kicks off with the EU GDP figures. The EU economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 1.9%. The IMF has upgraded his GDP forecast for the euro zone by 0.2% to 1.9% for 2017.
Friday, August 4, 2017 – The Non-Farm Payrolls Report is one of the most awaited figures especially for Forex traders. The US added 222k new jobs in June and it’s expected to only add 180k new jobs in July. The unemployment rate inched higher by 0.1% to 4.4%, but based on the market consensus it should drop back to 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings missed market expectation and saw a set back increasing only by 0.2%.
Thursday, August 10, 2017 – The US PPI inflation figure is the Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation. The PPI inflation figures have slowed down which has prompted the Fed’s dovish tone. In the PPI inflation figure only modestly grew by 0.1% and the market consensus is for no change in the inflation for July.
Tuesday, August 15, 2017 – Germany GDP figures are scheduled to be released. Germany economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 1.7%. Based on the IMF forecast the GDP should grow by 1.8% in 2017.
Wednesday, August 16, 2017 – The FOMC minutes should give us more clues as to why the Fed has turned dovish on its inflation outlook and also more insights will be provided into the Fed’s timing on when the balance sheet unwinding process will start.
Friday, August 25, 2017 – The annual Jackson Hole Symposium will gather together central bankers, finance ministers and financial market participants from around the world. Any headlines coming out of Jackson Hole have the potential to disrupt the market volatility.
Wednesday, August 30, 2017 – The US preliminary GDP figure is the main risk event. The US economy has surprised the market and beat the market expectation after it posted a 1.2% annualized rate. According to the IMF forecasts the US economy is only expected now to grow by 2.1% versus 2.3% previous forecast.

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[FOREX TIP] Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 31st July to 4th August 2017

Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 3rd to 7th July 2017

EURUSD had another bullish week. The last FOMC’s decision of not to change the interest rate pushed the EURUSD further up. Some high impact news events are there next week that is to create volatility and shake the pair. Let us have a look at those…

Tuesday-01.08.2017-14.00 GMT

ISM Manufacturing PMI

A news event, which has to be dealt carefully by the intraday EURUSD traders. It often ends up producing spikes on the intraday charts.

Wednesday-02.08.2017-14.30 GMT

Crude oil inventories

Although, it does not make the pair volatile all the time, but this is one very important high impact news event. Some excellent trading opportunities might come after this news event.

Thursday-03.08.2017- 12.30 GMT

Unemployment claims

This news event often makes the pair very volatile. Since it is going to be the first “Unemployment Claims” data to be released for the month, so EUROUSD traders should take extra caution to deal with this news event.

Thursday-03.08.2017- 14.00 GMT

ISM Manufacturing PMI

This news event might make the pair volatile on the small charts. Big charts might not be that much affected since the pair would already find a direction from the previous high impact news event.

Friday-04.08.2017-12.30 GMT

Average hourly earnings m/m
Non-farm employment change
Unemployment change

A day to write on the notebook of EURUSD traders since NFP is going to publish its data. Surely, the pair will be very volatile and there might be some terrific trading opportunities for those who know how to make use of them.

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