[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

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Fundamentals Outlook
The economic calendar for the week ahead will continue with some GDP data out of the Eurozone. The French preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be coming out on Monday. This is followed by the German business climate. Given the weakening sentiment among businesses, the data could disappoint. Later in the week, the flash inflation estimates from France, Germany and Spain will shed light on how inflation behaved in November.

Data from the United States will see the second revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. The first estimates showed that the gross domestic product increased 3.5%. The Fed will also be releasing the meeting minutes this week on Thursday. Data from Switzerland will see the release of the quarterly GDP numbers for the third quarter. No major surprises are expected. Economic data from Japan will focus on the inflation and retail sales figures for October.

Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair extended strong declines as price action settled near the support level of 0.9915. The currency pair has been consolidating at this level and the decline marks a breakout from the rising price channel. However, in the near term, we expect price action to remain somewhat flat with a bias to the downside.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9951; Resistance: 1.0080

Commentary:
As the USDCHF bounces off the support level, there is scope for the currency pair to move in a sideways range. However, as the Stochastic oscillator is seen to be in the oversold levels, we could expect the support to give way. There is a risk that the USDCHF could lift higher and test the breakout level from the rising price channel. This is close to the resistance level of 1.0080 which could be tested once again. A break out below the 0.9951 support could however accelerate the declines down to the next support at 0.9741. For the week ahead, USDCHF is expected to be bearish.

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
The economic calendar for the week ahead will continue with some GDP data out of the Eurozone. The French preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be coming out on Monday. This is followed by the German business climate. Given the weakening sentiment among businesses, the data could disappoint. Later in the week, the flash inflation estimates from France, Germany and Spain will shed light on how inflation behaved in November.

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Data from the United States will see the second revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. The first estimates showed that the gross domestic product increased 3.5%. The Fed will also be releasing the meeting minutes this week on Thursday. Data from Switzerland will see the release of the quarterly GDP numbers for the third quarter. No major surprises are expected. Economic data from Japan will focus on the inflation and retail sales figures for October.

Chart set up: The USDJPY briefly slipped below the support level at 112.74 only to recover. Price action has remained subdued for the most part as eventually the support area was tested once again. Failure to have posted any higher highs in the past week is starting to see the sentiment turn bearish. However, the USDJPY’s reaction to the support level will be crucial in determining the next leg of the direction.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 112.74; Resistance: 113.58

Commentary:
In the medium term, the USDJPY remains range bound and directionless. We expect the sideways range within 113.58 and 112.74 to be maintained. A retest of the resistance level could however signal a downside bias if it isn’t cleared. The lower support at 111.78 will be tested in the near term if the support clears way following the test of resistance. The market sentiment will also be playing a crucial role. A risk averse mode could potentially see the inflows into the yen which could result in the USDJPY falling below the support and extending the declines even further. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be flat.

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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
The economic calendar for the week ahead will continue with some GDP data out of the Eurozone. The French preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be coming out on Monday. This is followed by the German business climate. Given the weakening sentiment among businesses, the data could disappoint. Later in the week, the flash inflation estimates from France, Germany and Spain will shed light on how inflation behaved in November.

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Data from the United States will see the second revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. The first estimates showed that the gross domestic product increased 3.5%. The Fed will also be releasing the meeting minutes this week on Thursday. Data from Switzerland will see the release of the quarterly GDP numbers for the third quarter. No major surprises are expected. Economic data from Japan will focus on the inflation and retail sales figures for October.

Chart set up:
The EURUSD currency pair remains range bound as last week, price action was seen testing the resistance area near 1.1450 and the support at 1.1345. This flat price action comes just after the euro currency broke out from the falling price channel.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1345; Resistance: 1.1449

Commentary:
The current decline back to the support area marks a retest of the breakout from the falling price channel. This indicates that the euro currency could potentially look for a rebound. This is also seen with the Stochastic oscillator in the oversold levels. A successful rebound would push the euro back to test the resistance area. A breakout above this level will then pave way for further gains toward 1.1606 level. For the week ahead, the EURUSD is expected to be flat.

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[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

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The AUDUSD is establishing a tight consolidation above the key support level 0.7200 and above the key 200 moving average. The resistance level established at 0.7346 is the upper bound of the current range zone. To the downside, we need a daily close and break below 0.7165 to suggest a shift in the trend direction. This will also open the door for a retest of support level 0.7100 from where we should expect the bulls to show up again.

The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory and it doesn’t show any extreme readings that might suggest a change in the trend direction. The Australian economic calendar is also stripped away from key risk events that can cause a spike in the volatility. In this regard, we should expect a more technical driven market that is more sensitive to the support and resistance levels.

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

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The USDCAD give back some of the previous gains and now we’re looking for a retest of the key 200 moving average. The bullish trend established in the beginning of October remains intact and we need a break of multiple support levels for the sentiment to shift to the downside. The pivot point established at 1.2650 is the level to keep an eye on for short term direction. On the downside, the support level 1.3084 followed by the big psychological number 1.3000 are the key level the bulls need to defend.

The stochastic indicator is in oversold territory so there is a good probability one of the support level mentioned above to produce a short-term reaction to the upside. On the upside, the previous week high established at 1.3317 is going to be a big hurdle for the bulls to conquer. The Canadian economic calendar will only bring the monthly GDP figures on Friday. However, from the other side of the monetary policy spectrum we have the FOMC minutes scheduled on Wednesday.

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018

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The GBPUSD bears have managed to successfully defend the key support level 1.2800. Some of the previous week losses have been recovered however, as long as we trade below the big psychological number 1.3000 the downside momentum should prevail. Only a break and a close above the big round number 1.3000 can suggest a shift in the trend direction. A break above 1.3000 can also open the door for the bulls to try and challenge the resistance level 1.3044. The stochastic indicator is already in overbought territory so we need to wait for a reset before the bulls to have another chance to take control of the price.

On the downside, the Bulls need to defend the previous swing low established at 1.2700. A break below will put in focus the key support level 1.2664. In terms of risk events we can’t find lots of economic data that can disrupt the market volatility. However, the EU BREXIT summit scheduled on Monday is set to give the tone for the rest of the week and it has the potential to generate trends. Other than that we can also note the Bank Stress Test Results scheduled on Tuesday.

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