USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The economic calendar for the week ahead will continue with some GDP data out of the Eurozone. The French preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be coming out on Monday. This is followed by the German business climate. Given the weakening sentiment among businesses, the data could disappoint. Later in the week, the flash inflation estimates from France, Germany and Spain will shed light on how inflation behaved in November.
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Data from the United States will see the second revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. The first estimates showed that the gross domestic product increased 3.5%. The Fed will also be releasing the meeting minutes this week on Thursday. Data from Switzerland will see the release of the quarterly GDP numbers for the third quarter. No major surprises are expected. Economic data from Japan will focus on the inflation and retail sales figures for October.
Chart set up: The USDJPY briefly slipped below the support level at 112.74 only to recover. Price action has remained subdued for the most part as eventually the support area was tested once again. Failure to have posted any higher highs in the past week is starting to see the sentiment turn bearish. However, the USDJPY’s reaction to the support level will be crucial in determining the next leg of the direction.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 112.74; Resistance: 113.58
Commentary:
In the medium term, the USDJPY remains range bound and directionless. We expect the sideways range within 113.58 and 112.74 to be maintained. A retest of the resistance level could however signal a downside bias if it isn’t cleared. The lower support at 111.78 will be tested in the near term if the support clears way following the test of resistance. The market sentiment will also be playing a crucial role. A risk averse mode could potentially see the inflows into the yen which could result in the USDJPY falling below the support and extending the declines even further. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be flat.
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