[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

AUDUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

The Aussie completely reversed the strong rally we saw in the beginning of the year and the break below the previous major swing low 0.7330 is actually very bearish for the AUDUSD. However, after another dip below 0.7300 we should see some reaction higher and possibly a retest of the big psychological number 0.7500. A daily break and close above 0.7500 can open the door for more gains and a retest of the next important resistance level 0.7650.

The stochastic indicator is already moving away from the oversold territory which supports the bullish case, but first we need more evidence of the rally before to commit anything on this trade idea. On the downside, a weekly close below 0.7300 can open the door for more weakness and a retest of the 2017 swing low 0.7160. The US-China trade war can be the only proxy-risk event that can disrupt the AUD/USD volatility, but as the summer trading conditions settle in, we should see more consolidation.

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AUDUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

USDCAD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

The Canadian dollar is facing a dilemma because usually during the month of July, according to its seasonal pattern it tends to drop. However, after recent USDCAD rally, it might be the case we’re running out of steam to continue pushing higher. On the upside, the next big hurdle comes at the big psychological number 1.3500 and as long as we trade below this level there is a risk we will be pulling back in July.

On the downside, the first key support level comes at previous swing high 1.3125 but the line in the sand remains the big round number 1.3000. A break below 1.3000 will open the door for 1.2920 followed by 1.2645. The stochastic indicator is moving away from overbought territory which supports the bearish case scenario. In terms of fundamental risk events, the trade war rhetoric is the greatest threat to the Canadian dollar because it will make it harder for the BOC to raise interest rates.

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USDCAD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

GBPUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

As we are entering into the summer trading conditions, we should see the GBPUSD more prone to range bound rather than to see trend development. In this regard the current bearish trend can slow down, but we’re still prone to have first a retest below the big psychological number 1.3000 and then a complete reversal. Only a weekly close below 1.3000 can open the door for more downside and a retest of the 1.277 swing low. On the upside the first major resistance level only comes at 1.3300 from where we can expect the bearish trend to try again to resume.

However, a daily break and close above 1.3300 can open the door for a possible retest of the big round number 1.3500 followed by 1.3670. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory, but pointing downwards, which is the reason why we favor another false break below 1.3000. The BOE is expected to keep interest rate on hold during the July meeting as the market consensus only sees a rate hike in August. However, due to the uncertainty around BREXIT, rising rates anytime soon, can be problematic for the BOE. Recent less hawkish rhetoric coming from the BOE – “gradual and limited way” – in regard to the interest rate policy will keep the British Pound under pressure.

Previous GBPUSD Monthly and Weekly Forex Forecast

GBPUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

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[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

USDCHF Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

Technical Outlook: The USDCHF currency pair was seen losing just 0.47% in July with price action being muted for the most part. This comes following a strong period of gains. We expect that the temporary top has been formed in the currency pair. USDCHF is currently trading sideways within 0.9968 and 0.9803 region. A breakout from this range could trigger strong declines as price action falls lower to test the major support level at 0.9469 – 0.9432 region. This is also validated by the bearish divergence seen on the daily chart.

Fundamental Outlook: Following a busy month of June, the Swiss franc is expected to remain on the sidelines leaving most of the lifiting to the U.S. dollar. The data from the U.S. is no doubt busy especially with the monthly payrolls report. However, the big test will be the final weeks of July when the preliminary GDP numbers for the second quarter will be released. Markets are expecting to see the U.S. economy rebound strongly in the second quarter which could potentially see the USDCHF attempting to seek more gains.

 

Previous USDCHF Monthly and Weekly Forex Forecast

USDCHF Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

USDJPY Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair is seen trading near strong levels of resistance both by the trend lines as well as the horizontal resistance levels. This suggests that price action could be easing back in the near term. Currently, the USDJPY is seen being tested by the falling trend line from October 2017. A reversal off this level could see USDJPY finding short term support from the rising trend line. However, we expect the currency pair to fall back lower to 108.76 level of support followed by a possible decline lower to 107.64 over the month.

Fundamental Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair has been broadly ranging for the past month with no clear direction in place. This sideways range is expected to continue into the month of July as well. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision is due this month. No changes are expected but with the recent weak patch of data on inflation, the BoJ could potentially spring a surprise. Still, with the BoJ already extending its QE to the fullest, it is likely that the central bank could surprise by other means.

Previous USDJPY Monthly and Weekly Forex Forecast

USDJPY Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

EURUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD currency pair posted strong losses in June falling 0.07% following over 3% declines the month before. However, the currency pair has managed to post a strong rebound off the support level from where price action was seen consolidating for the most part. The rebound off this level is expected as the Stochastics oscillator was seen posting a bullish divergence while price action was steady at the support area. To the upside, EURUSD could be seen extending the gains initially to 1.1801. A break out above this level will trigger further gains to 1.2154 region.

Fundamental Outlook: The euro currency was seen extending the declines from the previous month of May. The decline in the currency came as the U.S. dollar was seen turning stronger on the fundamentals. For the month ahead, we expect to see some moderation to the declines as the common currency could be seen posting a correction. The ECB will be holding its monetary policy meeting this month. No changes are expected however as the central bank had recently announced its tapering decision as well as the decision to end its QE program this year.

Previous EURUSD Monthly and Weekly Forex Forecast

EURUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018

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[FOREX TIP] NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 3rd July 2018

NZDUSD has been having a strong Bearish ride on the H4 chart. The price has kept making lower lows. Today’s first two H4 candles were Bearish candles too. The last H4 candle came out as an Engulfing candle. Thus, if we get a breakout towards the downside, then selling the pair would be rewarding. Let us have a look at the H4 NZDUSD chart.

NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 3rd July 2018

Have a look at the trend. This is a strong sell trend. Thus, we should only look for selling opportunity here. The current candle has been trying to make some correction on the smaller time frame. Since the last H4 candle came out as an Engulfing candle, so an H1 breakout at the level of 0.66845 would take the price towards the level of 0.66365. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…

• Sell Stop Order: 0.66845
• Stop Loss: 0.67145
• Take Profit: 0.66365
• Validity: 72 hours
• Whenever possible, move the stop loss to the entry price and whenever you want, you can take profit anytime as long as you feel comfortable

As we see on this chart that the trend is very strong Bearish on the H4 and Daily chart. When a chart looks like this, we should not go another way to take an entry. I mean we must not trade against the trend. We might get a good-looking intra-day long entry, but in 70 per cent cases, it would make us have a loss. The trend is trader’s friend. We make sure that we use our friend in our favor. There is no point in going against the trend (especially on the H4 and the Daily chart) and keep losing money.

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