Technical Outlook: USDJPY slipped back into the support level at 112.50 – 112.00 region. With the Stochastics on the 4-hour chart also in the oversold level, we can anticipate a modest bounce to the upside. Resistance remains strong at 114.00. Tactical long positions could be taken off the current level, targeting 114.00 and also positioning for the long term towards 118.00 as there is a potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern that could be taking shape. Watch out for the neckline support near 115.26 – 114.72 where a breakout above this level could mean further gains in store. In terms of risk, the long position would be invalidated on a close below 111.50.
Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan this week wil linclude the CPI figures which is expected to show another month of disappointing headline numbers from the region. Japan’s retail sales due on Monday is expected to show a 1.0% increase, expanding from the 0.7% increase seen previously. Manufacturing PMI numbers are also expected this week and data is expected to show a modest improvement from 53.5 to 53.6. For the most part USDJPY will be focusing on the developments from the U.S. which will see the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen speaking on Friday among other FOMC members. The speeches will be important as it comes two weeks before the March FOMC meeting and could offer clues on the prospects of a rate hike.
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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 27th Feb to 3rd Mar 2017 – Bullish
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