The US dollar had a mixed week amid hopes for peace in the Korean peninsula, fears of trade wars and also a mixed jobs report. What’s next?. Markets will be digesting the latest news from a busy week before focusing on US inflation. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week. The US Non-Farm Payrolls [...]
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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Mar 2018
Technical Outlook: The USDCHF currency pair built some upside momentum as price action managed to clear the resistance level that was formed at 0.9455. The breakout above this level could potentially indicate further near term gains in price. We expect USDCHF to eventually target 0.9741 level of resistance which had previously served as support. To the downside, any dips are likely to stall near 0.9455 level with possible downside bias building up in the event that USDCHF closes back below the resistance/support level.
Fundamental Outlook: Data from Switzerland remains light for the most part with Thursday’s quarterly central bank meeting from the Swiss National Bank standing out. The three month Libor rate is expected to remain unchanged at -0.75% at this week’s meeting. The central bank officials are also expected to maintain the status quo with the potential risk of talking down the Swiss franc. On the economic front, Switzerland’s PPI data comes out just before the SNB’s meeting. Overall, the data from the U.S. will also have an impact as the markets turn focus to the inflation figures for February. Other items that stand out include the building permits report due on Friday.
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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Mar 2018
Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair continued to push higher after price action was seen forming a base near the 105.78 – 105.42 level of support. By Friday’s close, USDJPY was seen testing the major long term trend line. A breakout from the trend line is required in order to establish the upside bias in USDJPY. The major resistance level at 108.43 level is expected to be tested on a successful breakout from the trend line. To the downside, USDJPY is limited in the declines which could see prices retesting the previous support level that has been established.
Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan for the week ahead is quiet after an eventful week last week following the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting. The preliminary machine tool orders kick off the week followed by the producer price index data later in the data. The PPI figures could have potential implications as expectations start to build that inflation could continue to rise in Japan. On Tuesday, the monetary policy meeting minutes from the previous week’s BoJ meeting will be released. Investors are likely to focus on the data in hopes to gain more clarity on the next policy move from the central bank.
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EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Mar 2018
Technical Outlook: The EURUSD was seen continuing to drift to the upside with price posting a strong reversal after initially falling to the support level at 1.2213 – 1.2184. Last week’s ECB meeting saw the euro rallying ahead of the meeting before easing back. The EURUSD continues to trade sideways within the resistance and the support levels that are formed. However, the brief breakout above the resistance level week failed to hold the gains which saw the euro currency settling back into the range. We expect this sideways range to continue for a while until a strong breakout could potentially establish a short term trend. We expect downside risk in the EURUSD which could see price testing 1.2070 level in the medium term.
Fundamental Outlook: Following last week’s key event risks that included the Italian elections and the ECB’s monetary policy meeting, the week ahead looks somewhat quiet for the euro currency. Most of the economic data for the week ahead focuses on the second tier data. The week starts off with the private payrolls quarterly report from France and the final inflation figures. The ZEW institute will be releasing the German and the Eurozone economic confidence. The data could gain importance as earlier, another measure of sentiment showed that the Eurozone economic sentiment had weakened. Industrial production and final inflation figures for the month of February are expected later in the week.
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AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Mar 2018
The Aussie has posted another green week which is supportive for the bullish case. There is scope for the AUDUSD to eventually have a try to regain again the big psychological number 0.8000. However, before that we still have to regain the intraday resistance level 0.7880. A daily close above this level is sufficient to give the AUD/USD a boost and open the door for a retest of 0.8000.
On the downside the first area of interest is at 0.7800, but last week low 0.7720 remains the critical level for the bulls. A break and a daily close below can invalidate the bullish case and eventually can open the door for a bigger drop towards the next are of support at 0.7643 levels. The Australia economic calendar doesn’t have any major risk event that can disrupt the market volatility. However, we can mention the RBA Assist Gov Kent which is due to speak at the Kanga News Summit, in Sydney. Monday we also have the Australia Labour Day which means that traders need to expect low level of trading activity
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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Mar 2018
The USD/CAD has found resistance at the big psychological number 1.3000. The inability to sustain any rally above the big round number suggests that the current rally has run out of gas and now we can expect to see a retracement or at least to consolidate in the near future. On the downside, we have the first level of interest at the intraday support 1.2760. A break and a daily close will open the door for a retest of the 1.2688 a more significant level that can produce a reaction higher.
The stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory which suggests that early in the week we can see an intraday rally before the current retracement to resume.
We only have one significant risk event scheduled on the Canadian economic calendar. The BOC Governor Poloz is scheduled to deliver a speech with the title “Today’s Labour Market and the Future of Work” at the Queen’s University, in Kingston.
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GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Mar 2018
The GBPUSD has produced an inside weekly bar which can signal that we can still see more ranging activity in the coming week. As long as we trade above last week low 1.3855 the consensus remains for more consolidation. However, a break below and a daily close below 1.3855 can open up the door for a retest of the next important support level 1.3570.
The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory and we don’t see any signs of major extreme positioning in the market. On the upside, last week high 1.3930 remains our resistance level but the first break can see some sellers and the market to retrace back into the range. The line in the sand remains the big psychological number 1.4000. A break above this round number can suggest that we’re ready to resume the bullish trend. The UK economic calendar doesn’t have any major risk event scheduled beside the Annual Budget report. The budget release outlines the government’s budget for the year and can be the catalyst for some volatility.
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