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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
Economic data for the week ahead moves to a quiet patch. The preliminary GDP report for the Eurozone will be coming out for the first quarter. This marks a second revised GDP estimate. The initial GDP report showed that the Eurozone economy advanced at a pace of 0.3% in the three months ending June 2018. Data from the U.S. will see the release of the core retail sales report with other second tier data including the Empire state manufacturing index and the preliminary non-farm productivity cost index. The building permits data is also due over the week including the housing starts. Data from Japan and Switzerland are light with no important events lined up.

Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair posted strong losses on Friday as price action fell strongly following the break down below the 1.1550 level of support. By Friday’s close, the euro currency was seen stalling near the 1.1400 round number support with the 4-hour chart attempting to close bullish at the support.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1400; Resistance: 1.1550

Commentary:
The declines in the EURUSD came after a prolonged sideways range that was followed. The breakout was swift and the currency pair fell sharply as a result. In the medium term, we expect to see some short term rebound in price action. However, any retracements will likely attract more sellers into the market as the EURUSD could eventually break below 1.1400 level of support.

The previously held support at 1.1550 will now turn to resistance on any rebound back to this level. A retest of 1.1550 could trigger a decline back to 1.1400. Further bearish momentum could push the EURUSD lower toward 1.1200 level of support. Alternately, if EURUSD fails to retest 1.1400 again, we could expect to see a reversal off the current lows. For the week ahead, the EURUSD currency pair is expected to turn bullish.

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[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

The AUDUSD has reached new lows for 2018 after it broke below the previous swing low and reached 0.7281 before bouncing slightly higher. On the downside, the next significant level comes at the major swing low 0.7160 that was established on December 2016. On the upside, the first level of interest only comes at 0.7346. A daily close above 0.7346 will confirm that the current break is false and the previous trading range can extend further. The top of the range remains the resistance level 0.7443.

The stochastic indicator is already showing an extreme oversold reading so early in the week we can expect a bounce. The downside should be limited until the stochastic indicator reset itself and move out of the bullish reversal reading. The Australian economic calendar only has one risk event scheduled for the next week. The Unemployment rate is set to be released on Thursday. Based on the market consensus the Unemployment rate is expected to inch high to 5.5% versus 5.4% previous reading. Also, the Australian economy is expected to add fewer jobs in July.

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AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

 

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

The USDCAD manages to break again above the big psychological number 1.3000 setting the tone for more strength. The strong weekly close above the big round number has opened the door for a retest of the next important resistance level 1.3220. Only a daily break and close below 1.3000 can shift the sentiment and open the door for a possible retest of the support level 1.2920.

The stochastic indicator is only showing a very modest reading above the 80 level. There is still room before we really have an extreme reading. As a major risk event we only have the CPI inflation scheduled on the Canadian economic calendar. Based on the market consensus the inflation rate in July should come flat at 0.1%, but the year-on-year inflation reading is expected to inch lower to 2.4% down from 2.5% previous reading.

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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

 

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

The GBPUSD bearish trend extended further to the downside reaching a new 2018 low at 1.2722. We also broke below the major swing low that was established in August 2017. The downside move looks overextended and based on the stochastic indicator we can already see an extreme oversold reading that can signal a bounce to come sooner rather than later. On the downside the next significant support level is the June 2017 low 1.2589 but more importantly the big psychological number 1.2500 will have more to say.

On the upside, we can note the intraday resistance level 1.2830 followed by 1.2955, and respectively the previous week high 1.3006. The UK economic calendar has scheduled some risk events that can disrupt the market volatility. On Tuesday, the Unemployment data is expected to come flat at 4.2%, the lowest level since 1975. Wednesday, the CPI inflation data is set to give more clarity to the short-term price action. The year-on-year rate of inflation is set to inch higher to 2.5% versus .4% previous reading. Thursday, traders need to keep an eye on the Retail Sales figures.

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[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
Economic data for the week ahead moves to a quiet patch. The preliminary GDP report for the Eurozone will be coming out for the first quarter. This marks a second revised GDP estimate. The initial GDP report showed that the Eurozone economy advanced at a pace of 0.3% in the three months ending June 2018.

Data from the U.S. will see the release of the core retail sales report with other second tier data including the Empire state manufacturing index and the preliminary non-farm productivity cost index. The building permits data is also due over the week including the housing starts. Data from Japan and Switzerland are light with no important events lined up.

Chart set up: USDCHF has maintained its range within 0.9962 resistance and 0.9907 support for the most part of last week. This sideways range is also forming a potential ascending triangle pattern with price action forming a higher low last week.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9907; Resistance: 0.9962

Commentary:
In the near term, the USDCHF is likely to attempt another go at the resistance level of 0.9962. A breakout above this resistance level could trigger further gains. The minimum upside on a successful breakout is toward 1.0000 level of parity initially. Alternately, failure to break the resistance could mean that the currency pair will once again consolidate within the range. For the week ahead, the USDCHF currency pair is expected to be flat.

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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

 

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
Economic data for the week ahead moves to a quiet patch. The preliminary GDP report for the Eurozone will be coming out for the first quarter. This marks a second revised GDP estimate. The initial GDP report showed that the Eurozone economy advanced at a pace of 0.3% in the three months ending June 2018.

Data from the U.S. will see the release of the core retail sales report with other second tier data including the Empire state manufacturing index and the preliminary non-farm productivity cost index. The building permits data is also due over the week including the housing starts. Data from Japan and Switzerland are light with no important events lined up.

Chart set up: The USDJPY currency pair has managed to hold on near the support level of 110.75. price action has remained resilient at this level with any test of the support level here pushing the currency pair slightly higher. In the process, price action has been forming a descending triangle pattern.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 110.75; Resistance: 111.55

Commentary:
With the range being maintained, the USDJPY currency pair could remain range bound for a while. The risk of a breakout on either direction is equal. However, the failure to post any significant highs after price action rallied to 113.00 level increases the possibility of a downside. In the event that USDJPY breaks down below the support at 110.75, the descending triangle pattern could be validated. This will push the currency pair lower to the next target level of 109.50. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be bearish.

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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018

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