EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th August 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
Economic data for the week ahead moves to a quiet patch. The preliminary GDP report for the Eurozone will be coming out for the first quarter. This marks a second revised GDP estimate. The initial GDP report showed that the Eurozone economy advanced at a pace of 0.3% in the three months ending June 2018. Data from the U.S. will see the release of the core retail sales report with other second tier data including the Empire state manufacturing index and the preliminary non-farm productivity cost index. The building permits data is also due over the week including the housing starts. Data from Japan and Switzerland are light with no important events lined up.
Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair posted strong losses on Friday as price action fell strongly following the break down below the 1.1550 level of support. By Friday’s close, the euro currency was seen stalling near the 1.1400 round number support with the 4-hour chart attempting to close bullish at the support.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1400; Resistance: 1.1550
Commentary:
The declines in the EURUSD came after a prolonged sideways range that was followed. The breakout was swift and the currency pair fell sharply as a result. In the medium term, we expect to see some short term rebound in price action. However, any retracements will likely attract more sellers into the market as the EURUSD could eventually break below 1.1400 level of support.
The previously held support at 1.1550 will now turn to resistance on any rebound back to this level. A retest of 1.1550 could trigger a decline back to 1.1400. Further bearish momentum could push the EURUSD lower toward 1.1200 level of support. Alternately, if EURUSD fails to retest 1.1400 again, we could expect to see a reversal off the current lows. For the week ahead, the EURUSD currency pair is expected to turn bullish.
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