Noob Currency Trader: 07/29/17

Saturday, July 29, 2017

[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

The AUDUSD has made a new high and briefly broke above the big round number 0.8000 before to sell off and give back some of the gains. The big psychological number 0.8000 remains the big resistance level and while we trade below this level we should look for more retracement. On the downside we have 0.7875 acting as intraday support level. A break and a daily close below 0.7875 will open the door for more downside towards 0.7790 followed by 0.7712 support level.

The Australian economic calendar has some important risk events that can impact the market volatility. Tuesday we have the RBA interest rate decision which most likely will set the tone for the coming week. The subdued inflation numbers will most likely keep the RBA to be more cautions to its language in regard to higher rates. Wednesday we have the Building permit numbers followed by the Trade Balance figures on Thursday. Friday, the last trading day of the week will bring the Australian retail sales figures and the RBA monetary policy statement.

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AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

The post AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

The USDCAD has finally managed to find a bottom at the 1.2413 level, but since the dominant trend is still bearish, we should treat any rally simply as a retracement. We can expect more consolidation in the coming weeks as the bearish trend needs to catch his breath. The first major level of resistance only comes at 1.2850. On the downside the big round number 1.2500 should act as support and it should also define the short-term price action.

The Canadian economic calendar looks mild with the only notable risk event being the Unemployment figure scheduled on Friday. The Canadian unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%, which is a sign of improvement in the labor market. On Friday we also have the NFP report, which is the main risk event of the week. The payroll numbers are expected to cool off after posting 222k new jobs in June. The market consensus is for only 185k new jobs added in July and the unemployment rate is expected to come flat at 4.4%.

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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

The GBPUSD has managed to break back above the big psychological number 1.3000 maintaining the bullish perspective intact. Obviously, as long as we trade above 1.3000 support level, we should expect GBPUSD to continue moving higher. The first resistance level is 1.3158 last week high while a break and a daily close above this level will open the door for a retest of 1.3300 major resistance level. The stochastic indicator is also pointing upwards which is constructive for the bullish case.

The UK economic calendar is packed with some important risk events that can disrupt the GBPUSD volatility. On Monday the first notable news event is the Inflation report hearings. Tuesday we have the Markit Manufacturing PMI figure which based on the general consensus is expected to inch higher from 54.3 previous readings. Thursday will bring the BOE interest rate decision which is the main risk event for the British Pound. Although the market consensus is for no change in the monetary policy, we need to pay attention to dovish/hawkish tone.

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GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

Technical Outlook: USDCHF managed to close higher on Friday. We expect to see a bottom being formed in place already. Resistance is likely to be established near 0.9703. Another higher low being formed could confirm the upside move. Therefore watch for any dips between 0.9730 and 0.9564. A break out above 0.9730 will signal a continuation in USDCHF towards 0.9861 – 0.9894 region. Alternatively, in the event that USDCHF breaks past the previous support at 0.9564, we can expect to see further declines in price.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Switzerland this week is light. On Tuesday, the manufacturing PMI figures are expected. In June, manufacturing activity was seen rising to 60.1. This was a strong improvement in the index after falling to 55.6 just the month before. There are expectations that a moderation in the activity could be expected. Later in the week, the SECO consumer climate data will shed further insights into the consumer confidence and optimism in the economy. The retail sales figures are also due although the data is unlikely to be much of a market moving event.

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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

Technical Outlook: USDJPY attempted to rally above 111.695. The currency pair managed to briefly break above this level but price action was quickly prompted by a strong bearish candle. By Friday’s close, USDJPY closed just below the support at 110.80. The next lower support is found at 109.70. This could be the next downside target for USDJPY. However, the Stochastics here is showing a higher lower against the lower low in price. This divergence could signal a potential correction in the making. But watch for a confirmed close above 111.69 in order to expect further upside in prices. Resistance is seen at 113.00.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan this week is mostly tuned into the second-tier data which is unlikely to move the markets much. Focus will of course turn to the economic data from the U.S. as a result. With the nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s lined up, the U.S. economic data will be the major drivers in the USDJPY this week. Trader sentiment will also play a role as a better than expected performance could signify that the Fed could still proceed with another rate hike this year. This will be quite hawkish as the Fed had made it clear on its intentions to begin unwinding its balance sheet.

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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st July to 4th Aug 2017

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD continues to post higher highs and higher lows suggesting that the uptrend is intact. A clear confirmation of a change is required in the EURUSD only then will the downside bias confirm the view. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, EURUSD is seen testing the previous highs that was formed. However, note that the Stochastics oscillator is currently posting a lower high. This divergence could suggest a near term decline. Technical support is seen at 1.1565 which could be tested as a result. Therefore, look to sell EURUSD on a daily close below 1.1728 which could see the much needed correction. Below 1.1565, further declines could send EURUSD lower towards 1.1489.

Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead will see economic data reflect on Germany’s retail sales. More importantly, the flash estimates for the month of July will be the main event to look forward to. After a brief decline in inflation, consumer prices in the eurozone showed an uptick in June. Traders will be focusing on whether the trend can be maintained and if inflation can continue to rise in July as well. A better than expected headline inflation reading will no doubt signal that the ECB will be coming under pressure to announce its tapering plans. On Tuesday, the quarterly GDP numbers from the eurozone is expected. This is for the period ending June. Second quarter GDP is expected to rise 0.6%, the same pace as the previous quarter.

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