AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th Nov 2017
The Aussie price range continued to narrow even further. We can’t rule out the possibility of further downside if the support level 0.7625 is broken. A break and a daily close below will open the door for a move towards the big psychological number 0.7500. But, since the stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory we can expect early in the week more range activity.
On the upside the top of the range 0.7730 remains the key level because a break above will mean the downside is over and we can now expect a bullish correction that can send AUD/USD all the way up to retest the big round number 0.8000. The Australian economic calendar has scheduled some risk events that can be the catalyst for some volatility. On Thursday we have the Unemployment rate and the employment statistic figures which can set the tone for the day for AUD/USD price action.
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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th Nov 2017
The USDCAD has potential to continue resuming the big picture bearish trend as long as we trade below 1.2800 an important pivot point. Last week high is also near our important pivot point and should provide further confluence. However, a break and a close above the 1.2820 can signal that we’re entering in an extended period of ranging activity. On the downside, the last week low 1.2663 remains our first level of support and since based on the stochastic indicator we’re already in oversold territory we can expect early in the week an attempt to fill in last week price range. A break below 1.2663 and a daily close will open the downside for a retest of 1.2550 followed by the big psychological level 1.2500.
In terms of risk events the Canadian economic calendar has nothing to offer other than the CPI inflation figures scheduled on Friday. However, from the other side of the monetary policy spectrum on Tuesday we have Janet Yellen which is due to speak at the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by the European Central Bank, in Frankfurt.
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The GBPUSD price action continues to be stuck inside a very frustrating and narrow range. The top of the range is at 1.3350, which is our first important resistance level. The bottom of the range is at 1.3030 but really what counts more is the big psychological number 1.3000. On an intraday basic level we have the first support level 1.3150 which can dictate the short-term momentum. Only a break and a close below the big round number 1.3000 can signal a trend continuation and since the stochastic indicator is already in overbought territory we might see and rally quickly fading away. However, a break and a daily close above 1.3350 can shift the momentum to the upside and target even higher levels.
The UK economic calendar will bring early in the week the CPI inflation figures which, based on the market consensus are expected to inch higher to 3.1% versus 3% previous reading. On Wednesday traders should focus on the UK unemployment rate and employment figures. Last notable thing on the UK calendar is the Retail Sales which are expected to get hit hard as the forecast project a reading of -0.8%.
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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th Nov 2017
Technical Outlook: The USDCHF closed above the 0.9894 – 0.9861 level of resistance. This puts the upside bias towards the next resistance level of 1.0088. We can expect to see a near term decline back to 0.9894 – 0.9861 level. This level could now be tested as support and could pave way for USDCHF to post further gains towards the 1.0088 resistance level. Failure to maintain the gains above the support level could signal a correction that will send USDCHF lower towards 0.9741 level of support.
Fundamental Outlook: It will be a quiet week from Switzerland as only the producer prices index data will be coming out. Traders will therefore focus on the U.S. economy data which is somewhat busy in comparison. The week ahead will see the latest consumer price index data on Wednesday followed by retail sales numbers as well. Some forward looking indicators such as the Philly Fed manufacturing index and the Empire State manufacturing index numbers will also be released over the week. This could potentially signal the bullish momentum in the U.S. economy that could keep the USDCHF supported to the upside in the near term..
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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th Nov 2017
Technical Outlook: The USDJPY broke down from the rising wedge pattern and price action is likely to follow through to the downside. We expect the near term declines to test the lower support level near 113.00. Following a test to the support level, USDJPY could be seen consolidating near this level. Watch for lower highs to be formed which could indicate further declines in price. The break down below 113.00 support could signal a decline towards 110.91 – 110.66 support level. This would mark a strong correction to the downside following the rally towards 114.50 level.
Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from Japan this week will see the release of preliminary GDP figures for the quarter ending September. In the second quarter, Japan’s economy was seen accelerating at a pace of 1.0% on the quarter. This put the annual GDP growth rate to 2.5%. For the third quarter, economists are expecting that the economic momentum might have decreased. Thus, the median forecasts show a 0.3% GDP growth rate. The weaker pace of expansion is expected to pull down the year over year GDP growth rate to 1.4%.
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EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th Nov 2017
Technical Outlook: The EURUSD managed to close last week on a bullish note, which follows the previous week’s doji candlestick pattern. This suggests some near term upside momentum in price. On the 4-hour chart, price action posted a strong bounce off the support level near 1.1588 – 1.1573. Failure to break down below this level suggests the potential invalidation of the bearish flag pattern. As a result, we can now expect EURUSD to test the resistance zone of 1.1691 – 1.1674 level. A reversal at this resistance level could see price action pushing lower. However, the sideways range within the mentioned resistance and support levels is likely to be maintained.
Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead will see the economic data from the Eurozone continuing with second tier data. However, the week is marked by GDP releases from Germany, France, Italy and the second revised GDP report for the Eurozone. No changes are expected as the Eurozone GDP is expected to remain steady at 0.6% as initially indicated by the preliminary report. Later in the week, the final inflation figures are expected to confirm that consumer prices weakened in the month of October. The data is unlikely to make any major impact on the euro currency which has already started its correction following the rally since June.
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EURUSD had a bullish week. The week finished with a strong bullish tone by engulfing the previous week’s candle. The next week has many events that need be noticed by the EURUSD traders. Let us have a look at those.
This event produces spikes on the intraday charts. Traders should be watchful just before this news event takes place.
These three events often produce spikes as well as some great trading opportunities. Those opportunities can be used once the news events get over and the market gets settled.
Be watchful for the hour before this news event takes place. It often ends up by creating strong volatility.
This is going to be one of the most high impact news events for the week. It usually creates some tremendous trading opportunities for the intraday as well as for the major time frame traders.
Whenever Draghi speaks, the EUR gets volatile. This means the EURUSD is going to react to this event heavily. Major time frame traders are going to wait for this news event’s impact to take their entries.
The last high impact news to wrap up the week. Thus, it could make the pair very volatile. EURUSD intraday traders should be very watchful to this event and have a solid plan with their floating trades.
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