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AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th May 2017
The AUDUSD broke below the big psychological number 0.7500 but it also broken below intermediate swing low points opening the door for more downside. The first support level only comes at the 0.7400 round number. The weekly close below 0.7500 should also indicate more bearish pressure. A break below 0.7400 can trigger even more selling pressure all the way down to the 0.7300 support level.
We have a busy calendar from Australia with lots of risk events that can trigger some volatility. Tuesday we have the RBA interest rate decision. The outlook for the interest rates is still dependent on the labor market, which has shown signs that the Australian economy is healthy.Thursday we have the Australian Trade Balance which remains in surplus. The RBA Governor Lowe is also scheduled to speak on Thursday. Friday will bring the RBA monetary policy statement.
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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th May 2017
The USDCAD has successfully broken above the big psychological number 1.3500 but we’re already in overbought territory based on the stochastic indicator and a pullback should happen sooner rather than later. On the downside, we have the first level of support at 1.3600 previous swing high. A break and a close below this level can trigger more selling pressure all the way to the 1.3500 big round number.
On the upside, we can expect to find resistance at 1.3700 followed by 1.3750 levels. The Canadian economic calendar looks empty and the only notable risk event of the week is the unemployment figures on Friday. But we also have a proxy risk event the Fed interest rate decision which is expected to keep rates unchanged. The rate announcement is not followed by any press conference and this encourages us to believe that the monetary policy will be kept unchanged. On Thursday the BOC Governor Poloz is due to speak at the CanCham Mexico and Club de Industrialists, in Mexico City.
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GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th May 2017
The GBPUSD technical pattern remains bullish and possible, we can see a break above the 1.3000 big psychological number. We need a daily close above 1.3000 to suggest more upside is on the horizon. The price structure suggests that any retracement should be shallow, however, there is still a risk for GBPUSD to fill in the last week range, but for that to happen we need a daily close below 1.2900.
The stochastic indicator in overbought territory and we might see some further range activity early in the week. The UK economic calendar looks soft and there are no major risk events on the docket that can produce a high level of volatility. Monday is also Labor Day and the liquidity should dry away. Wednesday we have the PMI Construction figures which are expected to come flat. Thursday we have the Markit Services PMI figures which are expected to come one tick down to 54.5. The biggest risk event of the week remains the NFP figures scheduled on Friday. Based on the general consensus we should expect a good number of 180k new jobs added while the unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 4.6%.
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Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 1st to 5th May 2017
EURUSD had started last week with adjustment. However, the week ended by producing a bearish Spinning Top. The next week is going to be the first week of May. Thus, we have to keep our eyes on the news calendar. Those news events normally set the tone of the pair for the whole month. Let us have a look at the next week’s schedule of the news events… not listed here is the final round of the French election on the 7th May. If you are trading EURUSD and other currencies this week… it’s best to exit all positions as another round of crazy move might just happen. Stay safe…
It might not create that volatility, but traders might consider this event before making their intraday trading plan for that day.
EURUSD traders should care about these three news events. All of them are high impact news events, so the pair might get huge volatility. Some good trading opportunities might come after these news events though.
Two huge news events that must be taken into account by every EURUSD trader. Surely, there will be extreme volatility around these two news events.
This news event might create volatility as well. However, this can be used to find opportunities as well.
An important event, which must not be ignored by the EURUSD traders.
Write this time and date on your notebook if you trade on EURUSD. The pair is going to get extremely volatile around these news events.
The pair might already take its route because of the earlier news events. However, intraday positions might get hit around this event.
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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 4th May 2017
Technical Outlook: The USDCHF remained a tad weaker but managed to post a higher low, well supported above the major support level near 0.9894 – 0.9861. With the daily Stochastics currently oversold, the bias remains to the upside. Question is whether USDCHF will breakout to the upside, invalidating the descending triangle pattern or if the support at 0.9894 – 0.9861 will be breached for further declines. Price action has been strongly consolidating at the current levels and it is best to stay on the sidelines for USDCHF until further clear bias is established. However, in the event of a break down below the support, it is best to sell USDCHF targeting 0.9784 and 0.9643..
Fundamental Outlook: A slow week for the Swiss franc will see focus turn to the U.S. dollar which will be looking at a very busy week which will see key events that include the state of the economy in the manufacturing and services sector. This week will see the release of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI numbers. Manufacturing is expected to see another weak month and is expected to pull back for the second consecutive month.
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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 4th May 2017
Technical Outlook: USDJPY posted multiple attempts near 111.65 but failed as noted in last week’s analysis. This indicates a near term pullback in prices as the U.S. dollar is likely to test the e11.65 resistance level once again. Notice that the daily chart shows multiple inside bars being formed in the past three sessions which indicates a potential breakout that is likely to come. Look to purchase USDJPY on any dips, potentially near 110 – 109.50 levels, as we can expect another go towards 111.65 followed by a longer term rally towards 115.00.
Fundamental Outlook: After a somewhat busy week, the Japanese yen takes a breather with focus shifting to the BoJ’s core CPI measure. Last week’s inflation report showed a somewhat mixed bag with the national core CPI rising 0.2% as expected while the Tokyo core CPI fell 0.1%, less than expected. The main driver for USDJPY will of course be this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. No changes to interest rates are expected from the central bank, while on Friday the monthly payrolls report will be coming out, all of which will signal increased volatility for the markets.
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