USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st Dec 2018 to 4th Jan 2019
Fundamentals Outlook
The economic data for the week ahead will see the markets looking to a new trading week of the year. Data from the U.S. is particularly busy. The week starts off with the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports coming out. Economists forecast that manufacturing activity will decline following various regional indicators showing a decrease in manufacturing activity. Later in the week, the U.S. jobs report is due starting with ADP/Moody’s private payrolls report. This is later followed by the official non-farm payrolls report for the month of December.
From the Eurozone, economic data pertains to the manufacturing and services PMI reports. The reports cover the month of December and investors will be keen to see how the economy fared during the last month of the year. Data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet for the most part this week. However, year end flows could bring some volatility to the markets.
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Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair was seen breaking out to the downside below 0.9870 level of support last week. The declines came following nearly two weeks of trading within the range of 1.0001 and 0.9870 region. Still, the breakout from this level saw the USDCHF posting a strong reversal by Friday’s close.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9741; Resistance: 0.9870
Commentary:
The reversal pattern seen on Friday could potentially indicate that the USDCHF currency pair will be testing the breached support level of 0.9870 where resistance could now be established. If the level holds the USDCHF from posting any further gains, we could expect the currency pair to post declines in the coming week. The lower support is seen at 0.9741 which will need to be tested to the downside. For the week ahead, we expect the USDCHF currency pair to be slightly bearish.
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