EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st Dec 2018 to 4th Jan 2019
Fundamentals Outlook
The economic data for the week ahead will see the markets looking to a new trading week of the year. Data from the U.S. is particularly busy. The week starts off with the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports coming out. Economists forecast that manufacturing activity will decline following various regional indicators showing a decrease in manufacturing activity. Later in the week, the U.S. jobs report is due starting with ADP/Moody’s private payrolls report. This is later followed by the official non-farm payrolls report for the month of December.
From the Eurozone, economic data pertains to the manufacturing and services PMI reports. The reports cover the month of December and investors will be keen to see how the economy fared during the last month of the year. Data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet for the most part this week. However, year end flows could bring some volatility to the markets.
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Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair remained fairly flat last week. Price action settled back at the resistance area of 1.1463 – 1.14490 level by Friday’s close. The common currency rallied following a brief decline before reversing the losses mid-way. Overall, the currency pair was seen maintaining its sideways range.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1351; Resistance: 1.1449 – 1.1463
Commentary:
The week ahead will see the EURUSD currency pair likely to continue its sideways range with the lower support at 1.1351 level. The minor trend line that is plotted remains key. A breakout from this trend line and the horizontal support level could potentially keep the EURUSD biased to the downside. A break below 1.1351 could see the EURUSD extending the declines to test the lower support at 1.1241 which hasn’t been tested that firmly. To the upside, a breakout above the resistance level needs to be backed by strong fundamentals. For the week ahead, the EURUSD currency pair is expected to remain flat.
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