USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Nov 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The markets head into a somewhat quiet mode for the week ahead. In the Eurozone, the final inflation report out of Germany and the Eurozone will be coming out. This will be crucial ahead of the next ECB meeting due in December. As long as there are no surprises, the central bank is expected to continue with its policy tightening plans. Data from Japan will stand out with the release of the third quarter GDP data. The preliminary estimates are expected to show that the economy continues to chug along at a modest pace. Other data over the week includes the producer prices index report.
The economic calendar for the Swiss franc is quiet with no major releases lined up this week. A somewhat busy week from the U.S. will see the release of the inflation data. Headline consumer prices are expected to hold steady near the 2.0% inflation target rate set by the Fed. Later in the week, retail sales report will shed light on the state of consumer spending for retail goods for the month of October.
Chart set up: The USDJPY currency pair managed to maintain the bullish momentum as price action broke past the resistance level of 112.58. The U.S. dollar closed bullish as the Japanese yen was seen weakening over the week. However, price action continues to remain choppy.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 113.58; Resistance: 114.73 – 114.52
Commentary:
The with resistance level of 113.58 being breached, the USDJPY could be seen attempting to push higher. The next main resistance area is seen at 114.73 – 114.52. This marks the top from the 3rd October highs. It is quite likely that the USDJPY will fail to break past this resistance level in the first attempt. To the downside, watch the support level of 113.58. Failure to hold the declines could push the USDJPY back lower. This will set the 112.74 lower support within sight.
For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be flat.
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