EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Nov 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The markets head into a somewhat quiet mode for the week ahead. In the Eurozone, the final inflation report out of Germany and the Eurozone will be coming out. This will be crucial ahead of the next ECB meeting due in December. As long as there are no surprises, the central bank is expected to continue with its policy tightening plans. Data from Japan will stand out with the release of the third quarter GDP data. The preliminary estimates are expected to show that the economy continues to chug along at a modest pace. Other data over the week includes the producer prices index report.
The economic calendar for the Swiss franc is quiet with no major releases lined up this week. A somewhat busy week from the U.S. will see the release of the inflation data. Headline consumer prices are expected to hold steady near the 2.0% inflation target rate set by the Fed. Later in the week, retail sales report will shed light on the state of consumer spending for retail goods for the month of October.
Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair was seen trading bearish last week as noted in the previous commentary. The declines were held despite the common currency briefly rising above the resistance level of 1.1449 – 1.1463. Failure to capitalize on this saw the euro currency easing back to the lower support level.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1345; Resistance: 1.1449
Commentary:
The outlook for the EURUSD remains flat with the currency pair seen settling back within the mentioned resistance and support levels. However, the breakout from the falling price channel saw a failure as price action once again moved back into the channel. The support level where consolidation is currently taking place could be seen weakening. A close below this support at 1.1345 could signal potential declines if price breaks down.
For the week ahead, the EURUSD is expected to be flat.
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