USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 12th to 16th Nov 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The markets head into a somewhat quiet mode for the week ahead. In the Eurozone, the final inflation report out of Germany and the Eurozone will be coming out. This will be crucial ahead of the next ECB meeting due in December. As long as there are no surprises, the central bank is expected to continue with its policy tightening plans. Data from Japan will stand out with the release of the third quarter GDP data. The preliminary estimates are expected to show that the economy continues to chug along at a modest pace. Other data over the week includes the producer prices index report.
The economic calendar for the Swiss franc is quiet with no major releases lined up this week. A somewhat busy week from the U.S. will see the release of the inflation data. Headline consumer prices are expected to hold steady near the 2.0% inflation target rate set by the Fed. Later in the week, retail sales report will shed light on the state of consumer spending for retail goods for the month of October.
Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair maintained the gains last week as price action was seen rising to 1.0080 level. This top was previously tested just last week. The failure to break past this resistance level could indicate some consolidation taking place.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9951; Resistance: 1.0080
Commentary:
The reversal near the resistance level of 1.0080 signals a modest double top pattern. This could potentially signal a downside breakout. However, the lower support at 0.9951 will be key. A break down below this level could accelerate the declines as USDCHF would embark on a corrective mode. In the short term, we expect the USDCHF to trade within the said levels.
For the week ahead, USDCHF is expected to be flat.
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