USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 3rd to 7th Dec 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The week ahead is expected to be busy with the start of a new trading month. Data over the week includes some key reports from the U.S. such as the ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI due earlier in the week. The ADP private payroll numbers followed by the official non-farm payrolls on Friday will cap the data from the U.S.
In the Eurozone, the monthly manufacturing and services PMI figures will be coming out. The data will likely give more details on how the Eurozone economy fared in the month of November. The Sentix investor confidence report will also provide more details on the business sentiment in the Eurozone area. A relatively quiet week from Switzerland will see only the release of the monthly inflation figures. Data from Japan is quiet this week with only the household spending report due.
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Chart set up: The USDJPY currency pair managed to bounce off the support at 112.74 level last week and once again tested the previously established resistance level at 113.58. While the U.S. dollar briefly attempted to break this level, the USDJPY closed back below this resistance level. The price action indicates that the resistance level is unlikely to be breached in the near ter.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 112.74; Resistance: 113.58
Commentary:
In the medium term, the currency pair is expected to maintain its sideways price action within the mentioned support and resistance level. However, watch for a break out above the resistance level at 113.58. If this is supported by strong fundamental catalyst, we could expect to see the U.S. dollar attempting to post new highs. A close above 113.58 could signal further gains as the USDJPY will now be targeting 114.52 level. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be flat.
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