USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 8th to 12th Oct 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
Economic data next week takes a breather after a rather busy first week. Most of the reports are second tier data and unlikely to move the markets to a bigger extent. Data includes German import prices and industrial production numbers. Economic data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet. No major releases are scheduled for the week ahead. In the U.S. the monthly inflation reports will be coming out. This also includes the final inflation figures from the Eurozone as well. Given that inflation eased as per the flash estimates, we could expect a reaction on a final reading in inflation. The flows in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen will also be set by the general market sentiment over the week.
Chart set up:
The USDJPY currency pair continued to post strong gains as price action breached past the resistance level of 113.58. The U.S. dollar also quickly posted a rebound to establish support at the newly breached resistance level by Friday’s close.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 113.58; Resistance: 114.73
Commentary:
The USDJPY was seen closing at fresh monthly highs last week. The gains came on a strong U.S. dollar and a risk on sentiment in the market. However, from the weekly charts, the USDJPY is seen closing with a doji candlestick pattern. This could signal a possible pause to the rally. A bearish follow through could mean a correction in the making. In the short term, the support at 113.58 remains critical. As long as this support holds, we could expect to see some more gains. However, the momentum looks to be easing. As a result, a break down below the support could trigger further declines. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be bearish.
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