USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 22nd to 26th Oct 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The week ahead is shaping up to be a quiet week. Data from the Eurozone will cover the monthly flash PMI’s for the manufacturing and services sector. Overall economic activity in the sectors is expected to remain unchanged and maintain the current pace of momentum. With lack of economic data to go by, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting will stand out. No changes are expected as the central bank will maintain its stance on ending QE this December. The meeting minutes come on the back of last week’s FOMC meeting minutes.
Investors will be looking to the ECB’s forward guidance, which will play a big role in shaping the expectations on the timing of the interest rate hikes in the Eurozone. The markets could see some volatility especially if the ECB officials come out dovish. Data from the U.S. is quiet for the most part. Friday’s third quarter advance GDP report will be closely watched. The U.S. economy is expected to maintain its 4% quarterly growth rate on average. While data from Switzerland is quiet, Japan will be releasing its monthly inflation figures.
Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair maintained its gains and finally manage to test the resistance level near 0.9967. The rally to this level alongside the daily price action which closed as a doji is indicative of a potential decline to the downside. On the contrary, if the bullish momentum continues, we could expect to see further gains in store.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9803; Resistance: 0.9967
Commentary:
With the resistance level at 0.9967 holding for the moment, the USDCHF could be looking to ease back from this level. The lower support at 0.9803 remains in play. We expect the USDCHF to test this level in the near term. There is a potential for the currency pair to further correct to the downside if the support fails to hold. For the week ahead, USDCHF is expected to be bearish.
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