EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 10th to 14th Sept 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The week ahead is expected to be quiet for the most part as far as data from the Eurozone is concerned. The German WPI along with Italian industrial production figures will be some of the reports on the economic front. The main highlight of the week will be the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. The ECB meeting, which is due for Thursday will see no changes to monetary policy. The ECB will be announcing that it would continue with the 15 billion bond purchases which will end in December this year. The euro currency could be seen turning a bit volatile on the event. Data from Japan this week is quiet with only second tier data on the cards. The Japanese yen will of course continue to play out to the market sentiment. The economic data from Switzerland is virtually empty with no notable releases due this week. In the U.S., the week ahead will see the release of the producer and consumer prices report. The data covers the period of August. This is later followed by the retail sales report. The data comes a week ahead of the FOMC’s meeting where interest rates are set to rise.
Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair was modestly bearish last week. The declines in the common currency came on the back of the strength in the greenback. The USD was lifted due to better economic data which continued to put the currency in the forefront.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1550; Resistance: 1.1627
Commentary:
Price action in the EURUSD was seen trading lower to the support level of 1.1550. We expect this support level to be tested in the near term. However, for the most part of the week, the EURUSD could be seen trading within the range of 1.1550 support and 1.1627 resistance level. With the ECB’s meeting due this week, we expect this range to break.
A breakdown below the support at 1.1550 will validate the head and shoulders pattern. This puts the downside target to the next main support at 1.1400. A retest of this lower support could signal a retest of the previous resistance level breakout. Establishing support here could potentially mark a rebound from the short term decline. For the week ahead, the EURUSD is expected to be bearish.
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