EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 24th to 28th Sept 2018
Fundamentals Outlook
The week ahead is expected to be relatively quiet for the most part. Data from the Eurozone will cover second tier data. German Ifo business climate will shed light on the business conditions for the Eurozone’s largest economy. In the U.S. the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting will be the main event to watch for. The FOMC meeting is due for Wednesday. The markets have fully priced in a rate hike at this week’s meeting. Forward guidance will be crucial for the markets looking ahead.
The recent flat print in inflation is starting to stoke concerns on whether the Fed will be able to raise rates for the fourth time this year. The Fed Chairman, Powell will be holding a press conference later in the day. The ECB will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes later on Thursday. Given that there were no major policy decisions taken at the recent meeting, the minutes are unlikely to impact the markets much. From Japan, the BoJ’s core inflation data and housing starts will dominate the headlines. Data from Switzerland is quiet for the week ahead.
Chart set up:
The EURUSD extended gains last week with the euro currency seen closing near the resistance level of 1.1797 – 1.1715 region. As price actions remains in a long term technical resistance level, we could expect to see strong gains emerging as a result on a successful breakout to the upside.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1715; Resistance: 1.1797
Commentary:
In the short term intra-week outlook, the EURUSD is seen settling within the range of 1.1715 support and 1.1797 resistance. We expect some sideways price action for consolidation in the near term. However, the bias has clearly switched to the upside. Given the fact that the current price band has been a key level in the past, it will be interesting to see how price action behaves at the current levels. The expectation is for the EURUSD to breakout to the upside. This could potentially confirm the uptrend in price and could push EURUSD to form a bullish trend. In the event that the support at 1.1715 fails to hold, then we can expect a move lower. For the week ahead, the EURUSD is expected to be bullish.
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