[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 16th to 20th July 2018

The economic data from the Eurozone this week will be focusing on the inflation figures. With the recent uptick in consumer prices and the ECB turning hawkish on its projections with forward guidance the final inflation figures coming out this week will be important.

The flash estimates on inflation showed that the headline consumer price index rose 2.0% rising to the ECB’s inflation target for the first time in decades. Core inflation rate was however still below the ECB’s target suggesting that most of the gains came from higher fuel prices.

Besides the inflation report, there are no other major economic releases of interest

Data from Japan this week is mostly quiet for the major part of the week. On Friday, the national core CPI data and the all industries activity report is expected to come out.

However, the Japanese yen is likely to be influenced by the market sentiment. This comes in the backdrop of rising trade tensions and the possibility of escalated trade wars. With the Japanese yen being a safe haven currency, investors will be looking to hedge their risks.

Data from Switzerland is quiet for the week ahead. On the other hand, the U.S. economic calendar is somewhat busy which is likely to keep the flows in the USDCHF currency pair. The week starts off with the U.S. retail sales numbers coming up. Later in the week, focus turns to the housing market data and is later followed by the regional manufacturing index reports. With the recent manufacturing activity measured by ISM rebounding strongly, investors will be looking to see if the momentum is maintained in the month of July.

Technical Forecast

EURUSD (1.1685)

Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair is currently consolidating into a triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This suggests that price action is likely to breakout in the near term as it approaches 1.1700 level. The 4-hour stochastic oscillator is also pointing to a hidden bullish divergence following the recent declines to 1.1614 level.

Key support/resistance levels:

Support: 1.1627; Resistance: 1.1777

Commentary:

Price action in the EURUSD continues to remain trading flat in the short term within the longer term downtrend. However, the declines in the currency pair are likely to be stalling at the current levels around 1.1600 region.

In the near term, price action could be seen reaching for the 1.1713 which marks a minor resistance level. The hidden bullish divergence in the stochastic oscillator supports this view. A break out above 1.1713 could clear the way for the EURUSD to test the next main resistance level at 1.1777.

For the week ahead, the EURUSD currency pair is expected to be bullish.

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EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 16th to 20th July 2018

 

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