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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Bullish Crab Harmonic Pattern – 30th Sept 2018

EURUSD Bullish Crab Harmonic Pattern – 30th Sept 2018

We have a Completed Bullish Crab Harmonic Pattern in EURUSD today.
This is on a H4 time frame.
Enter into Buy position at D or the price of 1.16100 (or as close as possible to it).
We target to exit with a Take Profit Target of 1.16400.
Good luck with the trade.

• Buy Price: 1.16100 (or as close to it as possible)
• Stop Loss: 1.15400
• Take Profit Target: 1.16400

Want to learn how to trade Harmonic Patterns?
Download Our Free Harmonic Trading Strategy Here

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[FOREX TIP] Different Types of Harmonic Patterns

Harmonic patterns trading are a type of technical analysis. It makes use of some frequently repeating patterns in the market. A harmonic pattern can be either a reversal or a continuation pattern. As such, they can form during corrections in a trend. The concept of harmonic trading was made famous by H.M Gartley in early 1930’s. Since then, harmonic pattern trading has caught on with a number of technical analysts. Further modifications from Scott Carney resulted in identifying new patterns expanding the family of harmonic patterns. While there are many variations to the harmonic patterns, a few have stood the test of time. This is because they occur more frequently on the price charts.

What is a Harmonic Pattern?

A Harmonic Pattern is a price based pattern. Patterns based trading is nothing new for traders. Some of the famous price action patterns include the head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms to name a few. What’s unique about Harmonic Patterns is that they also need to adhere to Fibonacci retracement levels. This is one of the main points that separate Harmonic Patterns from other chart patterns.

The different turning points in price each have their own criteria to validate the pattern as one of the Harmonic Patterns. When a Harmonic Pattern satisfies the Fibonacci ratio levels, traders can then expect and project the potential move in price. The projected price is also based on the Fibonacci ratios.

Why is Harmonic Pattern trading effective?

Harmonic Pattern trading is effective because when a pattern is validated, it can project the near term behavior of price. Furthermore, harmonic patterns occur at key support and resistance levels. Because price moves in trends, traders can also apply the current trend and trade the harmonic pattern more effectively.

These price patterns occur across different time frames. This is another reason why they are effective and more widely used. A swing trader can look at harmonic patterns occurring on the daily or weekly chart. Likewise, a short term day trader can easily look at the harmonic patterns occurring on short term time frames such as 5 or 15 minute charts.

Harmonic Patterns are geometric in structure. As a result, the patterns form what is known as Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The potential reversal zone is where there is a high likelihood of price to reverse. As you can see, this brings an advantage. When a trader can identify a high probability reversal zone, it is easy to keep emotions aside. With tight stop losses, there is a higher chance of profiting from winning trades.

Different Types of Harmonic Patterns

All the harmonic trading patterns are based from 5 turning points in price. We name these points X, A, B, C and D. Below are the rules that each of the harmonic patterns must follow.

The Gartley Harmonic Pattern

A Gartley pattern must follow the rules:

• AB leg should retrace about 61.8% of leg XA
• BC should retrace 38.2% – 88.6% XA
• CD is at least a 78.6% retracement of leg XA

There are times when the point D can be an extension of 127% – 161.8% extension of the BC leg.

The chart below shows a bullish Gartley pattern. The reverse is the true for a bearish Gartley pattern.

The Gartley Harmonic Pattern

The Butterfly Harmonic Pattern

The Butterfly Harmonic Pattern

A butterfly pattern must satisfy the following rules:

• AB should be a 78.6% retracement of the XA leg
• BC must be between 38.2% and 88.6% of the AB leg
• CD must be a between 161.8% – 261.8% extension of the AB leg
• CD must be between 127.2% – 161.8% extension of the XA leg

The example below shows a Butterfly pattern.

The Butterfly Harmonic Pattern

The Crab Harmonic Pattern

The Crab Harmonic Pattern

The Crab Pattern is another Harmonic Pattern which works the same way as the previous.

The rules for a Harmonic Pattern to become a crab pattern are:

• AB should retrace between 38.2% – 61.8% of XA leg
• BC should retrace between 38.2% – 88.6% of AB leg. C should never exceed point A’s high (or low)
• CD is the longest leg and it should extend to 161.8% of XA. In some extreme cases, CD can extend between 224.0% – 361.8% of BC leg.

The example below shows the Crab Pattern.

The Crab Harmonic Pattern

The Bat Pattern

The Bat Harmonic Pattern

The Bat pattern gets its name because the pattern looks like a bat with outstretched arms. The rules for a Harmonic Pattern to qualify as a bat pattern are:

• AB should retrace 38.2% – 50% of XA leg
• BC should retrace 38.2% – 88.6% of AB leg
• CD should retrace 88.6% of XA or can exceed to 161.8% – 261.8% of AB leg.

The picture below depicts a bat pattern.

The Bat Harmonic Pattern

The Shark Pattern

The Shark Harmonic Pattern

The shark pattern looks a bit similar to the crab pattern. The retracement rules are:

• AB leg extends between 113% – 161.8% of XA
• CD should extend BC between 161.8% – 224%
• CD should also be between 88.6% – 113% of XA

The chart below shows an example of the shark pattern.

The Shark Pattern

The Cypher Pattern

The Cypher pattern is rather simple. The rules are:

• AB should retrace 38.2% – 61.8% of XA
• BC should extend 113% – 141.4% of XA
• CD should retrace to 78.6% of XC

Below is an example of the Cypher pattern.

The Cypher Pattern

Pitfalls of trading Harmonic Patterns

Although Harmonic Pattern trading is easy, there are some inherent pitfalls. For one, it is not uncommon to see multiple patterns forming from within. For example, a bullish Gartley Pattern could very well result in a smaller scale bearish Crab pattern. This can confuse the trader as a result. Despite the high probability of the pattern, such multiple patterns can lead to confusion and losing trades.

Secondly, due to the tight stop loss, there are many instances when price can spike through the stop loss only to reverse course again. Last but not the least Harmonic Pattern is purely technical. Therefore, there are chances that major news could potentially wreak havoc with the setup.

How to make Harmonic Patterns more reliable

There are a number of ways to make Harmonic Patterns more reliable. For starters, paying attention to support and resistance levels can help. Combining this with price action reversal patterns such as bearish or bullish engulfing or inside bars can bring some confidence to the trades. It is also important that you set the stop loss and target levels to a reasonable price level.

For example, stop losses across all Harmonic Patterns can be set to a few pips above the high or below the low of X, the first starting point of the Harmonic Pattern.

Take profit levels are set to 38.2% and 61.8% of the CD leg.

You could also make use of other technical indicators. One indicator that can be very valuable is the Stochastic oscillator. Because the Stochastic oscillator identifies oversold and overbought levels, traders can use this information to further validate their trades. However, it is easier said than done. Given that a good amount of time is required to validate an evolving Harmonic Pattern, the above mentioned methods require further time to analyze the set ups. The example below shows how you can use Harmonic Patterns alongside the Stochastic oscillator to validate the potential reversal zone.

How to make Harmonic Patterns more reliable

In the above chart you can see that after the point D is identified. Following this, instead of blindly going short, it is best to wait for the Stochastics to signal a turn around. This can be found after price bounces back slightly. The Stochastics, although not in the oversold level triggers a sell signal.

Selling on this trigger from the Stochastic gives you a more valid entry point into the trade. Also note that because Harmonic Patterns take profit at 38.2% and 61.8%, it is best to cover your stop loss to break even or even lock some profits after the first target is met. Another example below shows a bullish Harmonic Pattern.

Bullish Harmonic Pattern with Stochastic

In the above example, you can see how the bullish Harmonic Pattern can be traded with confidence based on the buy signal from the Stochastic. Here, the Stochastic triggers a buy signal following which traders can go long on the trade.

Harmonic Pattern Trading Strategy

In conclusion, the Harmonic Patterns are basically different versions with varying levels of Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. By adding other methods such as price action or Stochastic you would be able to improve your harmonic trading. Remember that you shouldn’t get too stuck up on the Fibonacci levels. Allow a bit of flexibility on the retracements. Last but most importantly, never jump into a Harmonic Pattern trade. Wait until price reverses off point D and then look for validation from the Stochastic in order to trade confidently.

If you want a shortcut to trading the Harmonic Pattern, then you should really invest in a powerful Harmonic Pattern Scanner.

 

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[FOREX TIP] Real Time Forex Trading Signals – 30th Sept 2018

This is a review of our overall portfolio growth on the 30th of Sept, 2018. This Forex Portfolio review is for the week ending on the 28th of Sept, 2018. If you are interested in copying some of the portfolios, I already have some listed on MQL5.com.
Please click here to learn more.

As you might already know, I am out looking for more economical alternatives to MQL5.com as I do feel MQL5 is rather pricey. So this is why I am setting up RealTimeForexSignals.com to allow anyone who is interested to copy all my portfolios.

So for the week that has just ended on the 28th of Sept, we ended the overall portfolio with $203,100.

The previous week was at $194,200

Real Time Forex Trading Signals – 30th Sept 2018

Watch the video for more explanation….

If you are more visual, this is the growth chart. The most important thing for me to desire is to see everything pointing from left to right… UP!

Real Time Forex Trading Signals – 30th Sept 2018

BIG BIG Change… While our overall portfolio is growing as expected… this past week, our 2nd largest gain portfolio took a nose dive. Although it’s still more than 100% in ROI, this portfolio took a hit. We were stopped out of position and it’s now reflected in this chart above. This is the BIG WHY that you need to diversify your portfolios with different trading strategies. Despite this drop, we still see a nice $10k increase in profit. Hope things are well with you too.

If you want to hire us to trade for you… click here

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[FOREX TIP] USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast

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[FOREX TIP] AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

Previous AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

 

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[FOREX TIP] GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

 

Previous GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

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[FOREX TIP] USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
The economic calendar for the week ahead will be dominated fresh monthly reports. The data will shed light on the final month of the third quarter. This will help investors to assess how various economies performed during this period. The week starts off with final services and manufacturing PMI reports from the Eurozone. Recent estimates put manufacturing PMI easing back while services PMI remained steady.

Data from Japan will see the release of the household spending and the average cash earnings. The two aspects will be crucial in shaping inflation expectations. While data from Switzerland is quiet for the week ahead, the data from the U.S. will keep the markets busy. The monthly ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports will be coming out. This is later followed by the monthly ADP private payrolls report and eventually culminate with the official payrolls data.

USDJPY (113.69)

Chart set up: The USDJPY was seen rising strongly on the week. Price action broke past the resistance level of 112.74 to extend to new highs. The bullish price action could potentially signal further upside in the currency pair in the coming weeks. However, the newly breached resistance will need to be retested for support.

Key support/resistance levels:

Support: 112.74; Resistance: 113.58

Commentary:

The U.S. dollar was bullish against the yen last week with the currency pair closing out near a previous resistance level of 113.58. Price action could potentially ease back from here on a reversal candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart. The strong momentum led gains is also signaling a bearish divergence.

This could mark a potential correction to the downside. The lower support at 111.63 remains a potential target. However, ahead of this, the USDJPY will need to break past the main support established at 112.74. In the near term, we could therefore anticipate a sideways range forming out within the mentioned support and resistance levels.

For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be flat.

USDCHF (0.9818)

Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair turned bullish as price action closed the week near the resistance level of 0.9803. This marks a retest of the previously breached support level. If resistance is formed here, the USDCHF currency pair could potentially start a correction.

Key support/resistance levels:

Support: 0.9649; Resistance: 0.9803

Commentary:

The USDCHF currency pair was seen accelerating with strong gains last week. With price action on the 4-hour chart posting a strong bullish candlestick, we expect a potential breach of the resistance level. Failure to clear this resistance level could push the USDCHF back lower to the support at 0.9649.

The overall trend in USDCHF remains flat for the moment. But this could change if the resistance level is breached to the upside. The renewed trend in USDCHF could push the bias back to the upside.

For the week ahead, USDCHF is expected to be flat.

 

Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast

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[FOREX TIP] USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast

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[FOREX TIP] EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast -1st to 5th Oct 2018

EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 1st to 5th Oct 2018

Fundamentals Outlook
The economic calendar for the week ahead will be dominated fresh monthly reports. The data will shed light on the final month of the third quarter. This will help investors to assess how various economies performed during this period. The week starts off with final services and manufacturing PMI reports from the Eurozone. Recent estimates put manufacturing PMI easing back while services PMI remained steady.

Data from Japan will see the release of the household spending and the average cash earnings. The two aspects will be crucial in shaping inflation expectations. While data from Switzerland is quiet for the week ahead, the data from the U.S. will keep the markets busy. The monthly ISM’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports will be coming out. This is later followed by the monthly ADP private payrolls report and eventually culminate with the official payrolls data.

Chart set up:
The EURUSD currency pair posted strong declines on the week as the currency pair gave up the gains from the week before. The declines came on the back of investor concerns on the rising debt from Italy and also a stronger U.S. dollar.

Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1547; Resistance: 1.1715

Commentary:
The euro currency broke out to the downside from the rising trend line last week. Price action also fell through the support level of 1.1715 to extend the declines. We anticipate that further declines could push the currency pair down to the new support at 1.1547. In the near term, there is a potential for the currency pair to post a modest rebound and to retest the breached support for resistance. If the euro currency manages to hold the support at 1.1547 we expect a reversal to the upside. However, failure to hold the support could mean the currency pair will extend further losses. Below 1.1547 support the EURUSD will be seen posting further declines to 1.1310 level. For the week ahead, the EURUSD is expected to be flat

Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

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