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AUDUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
The Aussie remains trapped in a very narrow trading range between support level 0.7300 and the big psychological number 0.7500. As long as we trade between these two S/R levels we should expect more consolidation. However, with the summer trading conditions in full swing mode, we can’t rule out the possibility to see some false breakouts on both sides of the market. The stochastic indicator is in neutral mode, so there are no extreme readings in the market. Above resistance level 0.7500 we can mention the next significant level as being the pivot point 0.7650.
While, on the downside, we can mention the intraday support level 0.7220. There are no major risk events that can disrupt the AUD/USD volatility other than the ongoing trade war rhetoric between the USA and China, which can act as a proxy risk event for the Australian Dollar. The RBA is also not expected to make any major changes in its monetary policy during the coming months, so we should expect a more technically driven market.
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USDCAD Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
As long as the Canadian dollar, trades above the big psychological number 1.3000 the bulls remain in control. However, we can’t rule out a short-lived sell off all the way down until we retest the support level 1.2920 from where we should expect the bulls to show up again. Only a daily break and close below 1.2920 will signal that a significant swing high was put in place at the level 1.3380.
On the upside the first level of interest comes at pivot point 1.3125 followed by 1.3380 which can open up the door for a retest of the big round number 1.3500 if we managed to get a daily close above it. The stochastic indicator is coming close to reach oversold readings so a bounce might be in the short horizon. The Canadian economic calendar doesn’t have much to offer in terms of risk events as there are no big shifts in the BOC’s monetary policy.
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GBPUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
The GBPUSD technical pattern remains bearish, but since August is considered to be the slowest trading month of the year we should expect the current trading ranges to prevail. The big psychological number 1.3000 remains the line in the sand between the bulls and the bears. Only a strong weekly close below 1.3000 will open the door for the bearish trend to resume and possible see a retest of support level 1.2770. On the upside the resistance level 1.3300 should stop any rally for moving forward. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory and it doesn’t highlight any extreme conditions in the market.
A break and a daily close above 1.3300 will indicate that we’re in the process of a larger correction, in which case we can see the resistance level 1.3670 retested again. On the fundamental side the ongoing BREXIT negotiation remains the biggest threat to the GBPUSD exchange rate. The chances of a hard BREXIT have increased considerably over the last few especially after the EU has rejected some of the key elements of the UK government BREXIT plan. A hard BREXIT will also make it harder for the BOE to raise interest rates, which is why the odds remains stacked against the British Pound.
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USDCHF Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
Technical Outlook: The USDCHF currency pair briefly broke past the previously noted resistance level of 0.9968. However, the gains saw a new resistance level being established at 1.0028. After two attempts to break past this resistance level, the currency pair posted strong declines. While the overall trend remains sideways, this comes at the top end of the rally. Therefore, the breakout within 1.0028 or 0.9803 could potentially determine the next leg of the trend in the currency pair. To the downside, a breakdown below 0.9803 could trigger a correction toward the lower support at 0.9462 – 0.9432.
Fundamental Outlook: As with most of the other markets, the economic calendar for the Swiss franc looks very light for the month of August. Therefore, most of the fundamentals are likely to be determined by the data from the United States. The only notable event over the month of August comes from the FOMC meeting minutes. However, no surprises are expected given the state of momentum in the U.S. economic growth. With the Swiss franc being one of the save haven assets, investors will be flocking to the Swiss franc in the event of any geo-political or economic shocks which remains the main risk for the USDCHF currency pair.
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USDJPY Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair was seen breaking briefly above a multi-year falling trend line. While this signaled a potential upside breakout, price action quickly gave way to a steep decline. Despite breaking past the horizontal resistance level near 111.49 – 111.08, the USDJPY settled below this level. As price action consolidates around this level, we expect to see potential downside momentum gaining pace. A much needed correction could push the USDJPY lower toward 108.76 over the next couple of months. However, in the near term, we expect the declines to be very gradual.
Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from Japan has been sparse in the month of July. The quarterly BoJ Tankan surveys released earlier in the month showed that large manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms were cautious. This came amid rising trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners. Meanwhile, inflation continues to rise at a sluggish pace. Wage growth, which was one of the aspect that the Bank of Japan was holding on to also remains weak. Amid this backdrop, the yen is likely to maintain its weakness in the near term. On the economic front, no major releases are scheduled for the month ahead.
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EURUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
Technical Outlook: The EURUSD currency pair was seen trading within the flat range of 1.1801 and 1.1540. The flat price action emerges after a previous strong downtrend. This could potentially signal either a bottom formation or a temporary sideways pause ahead of further declines. This will be determined by the potential breakout from this range. An upside breakout could trigger near term gains and could cause a short term correction in prices. However, in the event that the EURUSD breaks out to the downside, a close below 1.1540 could trigger steep declines as the downtrend could resume.
Fundamental Outlook: Economic data for July did not impact the euro currency much. Although the broader outlook remained one that of cautious, the common currency managed to hold its ground. The ECB meeting was the main highlight of the month in July. However, the central bank stood pat on monetary policy. This came as the ECB had announced its forward guidance in June which included its plans to end QE by December 2018. The month ahead is expected to remain quiet for the most part. No major economic releases are scheduled amid a holiday month. As a result, the euro currency could be seen to continue trading within the range.
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AUDUSD has been in a range on the H4 chart. However, there is some space for the price to go upward. Today’s price action shows that the pair produced a strong H4 Bullish candle. If the breakout level is held by the current H4 candle, then we might get an opportunity to take a long entry on the pair. Let us have a look at the H4 AUDUSD chart.
AUDUSD Price Action Analysis – 31st July 2018
Have a look at today’s H4 Bullish Engulfing candle. The candle also has made a breakout at the level of 0.74155. Now that level has to be held by the current H4 candle. If this level is held and it produces an H1 Bullish Engulfing Candle afterwards, then buying the pair would get us some green pips later today. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…
The best buying signal here would be if the current H4 candle finishes a bit above the breakout level. Later, an H1 candle of the next H4 candle comes to the breakout level, and then an H1 Bullish Engulfing Candle is produced. If the H1 Engulfing Candle is produced within the current H4 candle, that is a valid entry as well. However, the signal candle within the next H4 candle is considered as an A+ signal to take the long entry that we have recommended here. Let us wait and see what happens next.
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GBPCAD has been very Bearish on the H4 and the Daily chart. The price has been heading towards the South by making new lower lows. Today’s first H4 candle came out as a corrective H4 Bullish Candle, but the next one came out as a Doji candle. If the current candle comes out as a Bearish Engulfing Candle, and we get an H1 breakout at last day’s lower low, then selling the pair would get us some green pips. Let us have a look at the H4 GBPCAD chart.
GBPCAD Price Action Analysis – 30th July 2018
Have a look at the current H4 candle. The level of 1.71340 is the level of Resistance here. If the current candle Engulfs the last H4 candle and we get an H1 breakout at the level of 1.70735, then selling the pair would get us some green pips with an excellent risk and reward ratio. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…
This week is the first week of August. The starting of the week looks good so far. However, we have to be patient to see the effect of some major news events such as NFP to get some direction of the market. We are at the last quarter of the year. So this week could be very vital. It could determine the direction to finish the rest of the year. Long-term traders are going to get engaged with the market soon by seeing off this week.
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AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th July to 3rd August 2018
The AUDUSD is continuing to consolidate in a very narrow and frustrating trading range. Since there are no signs of any extreme oversold or overbought readings we should expect the market to produce false breakouts on both sides of the market. On the downside, we have our key support level 0.7346 followed by the swing low 0.7300, which traders should keep an eye on. On the upside, the top of the range 0.7443 followed by 0.7480 are the key resistance levels ahead of the big psychological number 0.7500. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory, so not much should expect.
The Australian economic calendar has some high risk events scheduled for the next week. Thursday, we have the Trade Balance data and Friday the retail sales can provide some volatility. However, the main risk events come from the other side of the monetary policy spectrum aka the Fed interest rate decision. The market consensus is for the Fed to keep interest rate unchanged at 2%.
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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th July to 3rd August 2018
The USDCAD price action remains trapped in a wide trading range. On the downside the big psychological number 1.3000 is the key support level you should keep an eye on for a possible reaction higher. However a daily close below 1.3000 will open the door for a retest of 1.2920. The stochastic indicator isn’t showing any extreme readings in the market, which means we should continue, down the path of consolidating. On the upside, the intraday resistance level 1.3150 followed by 1.3220 are our levels of interest.
The Canadian economic calendar will bring the GDP data, which, according to the general consensus should come unchanged at 0.1%. Friday will bring the Canadian Trade balance data and we also have the NFP report, which should show that the US economy has added another 200k new jobs during the past month. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to inch lower to 3.9% from 4.0%.
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GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th July to 3rd August 2018
The GBPUSD weekly close above the big round number 1.3000 suggests that the bulls are still in control. This doesn’t mean that we can’t see another attempt to break below 1.3000 but since the stochastic indicator is already showing an oversold reading we can expect that any attempt to break lower to fail. On the downside, the next level of support comes at 1.2955 followed by 1.2810 from where we can expect a bounce. On the upside, the intraday pivot point 1.3120 is a level that you should keep an eye on, but the more significant level remains the current top of the range and resistance level 1.3280.
Only a daily break and close above 1.3280 can signal that a major swing low was put in place. In terms of risk events that can disrupt the market volatility we have the Markit Manufacturing PMI, but more importantly, we have the BOE interest rate decision which, according to the market consensus the BOW is expected to raise rates to 0.75% from 0.5%. However, this is not a done deal because the recent developments around Brexit might actually make it harder for the BOE to raise rates.
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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th July to 3rd August 2018
The markets look to a busy week this coming week which marks the end of July. Economic data kicks off with the Bank of Japan set to hold its monetary policy meeting. According to some rumors, the BoJ is expected to announce a possible change to its interest rate targets. The week ahead will also see the release of the core PCE price index data from the U.S. the report comes ahead of the September monetary policy meeting. The start of August will trigger the release of the main important fundamentals which includes the ISM manufacturing PMI and Friday’s payrolls report. The FOMC will be holding its placeholder monetary policy meeting on the 1st of August. No changes are expected to interest rates at this week’s meeting with investors expecting to see a rate hike in September. Data from the Eurozone over the week covers the flash inflation estimates for the month of July. The economic calendar from Switzerland is relatively quiet this week.
Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair was seen bouncing off the median line to briefly rally back to the resistance level around 0.9962. The 4-hour Doji was followed through be a bearish close which could potentially signal a move to the downside as price action could test the support level that has been freshly established.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9907; Resistance: 0.9962
Commentary:
The USDCHF currency pair is expected test the support level and could possibly maintain a sideways range within the support and resistance level mentioned. A breakout from this level could trigger the next leg of the short term trend. We expect a downside breakout which could push USDCHF lower to test the next support at 0.9870.
For the week ahead, the USDCHF currency pair is expected to be bearish.
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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th July to 3rd August 2018
The markets look to a busy week this coming week which marks the end of July. Economic data kicks off with the Bank of Japan set to hold its monetary policy meeting. According to some rumors, the BoJ is expected to announce a possible change to its interest rate targets. The week ahead will also see the release of the core PCE price index data from the U.S. the report comes ahead of the September monetary policy meeting. The start of August will trigger the release of the main important fundamentals which includes the ISM manufacturing PMI and Friday’s payrolls report. The FOMC will be holding its placeholder monetary policy meeting on the 1st of August. No changes are expected to interest rates at this week’s meeting with investors expecting to see a rate hike in September. Data from the Eurozone over the week covers the flash inflation estimates for the month of July. The economic calendar from Switzerland is relatively quiet this week.
Chart set up: After the USDJPY currency pair broke to the downside of the rising price channel, the currency pair has moved into a sideways range. While there is scope for a downside decline in price action, we expect to see the breakout occurring in either direction.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 110.75; Resistance: 111.55
Commentary:
The newly established support and resistance levels form the upper and lower bounds for the USDJPY. If price action breaks out from this level could we could expect to see a strong retracement above 111.55. This could push the currency pair toward 112.27 to retest and establish the resistance level. To the downside, a break down below 110.75 could signal a break towards 109.50. In the near term the currency pair could rebound off the current levels to test the breached support at 111.27 where resistance is now expected to be established.
For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be bearish.
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EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th July to 3rd August 2018
The markets look to a busy week this coming week which marks the end of July. Economic data kicks off with the Bank of Japan set to hold its monetary policy meeting. According to some rumors, the BoJ is expected to announce a possible change to its interest rate targets. The week ahead will also see the release of the core PCE price index data from the U.S. the report comes ahead of the September monetary policy meeting. The start of August will trigger the release of the main important fundamentals which includes the ISM manufacturing PMI and Friday’s payrolls report. The FOMC will be holding its placeholder monetary policy meeting on the 1st of August. No changes are expected to interest rates at this week’s meeting with investors expecting to see a rate hike in September. Data from the Eurozone over the week covers the flash inflation estimates for the month of July. The economic calendar from Switzerland is relatively quiet this week.
Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair remains in a consolidation phase in the long term and in the medium term. Price action over the past week saw the currency pair continuing to trade sideways. By Friday’s close, the EURUSD currency pair bounced off the support level at 1.1627. We expect this ranging price action to continue in the medium term.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1627; Resistance: 1.1740
Commentary:
The week ahead will see the EURUSD currency pair likely to continue moving in the sideways range. With the resistance and support level established at the said levels, the currency pair could however possibly see a breakout in the near term. With the U.S. economic data likely to see high impact events, this could be the outcome.
On the 4-hour chart there is a possibility that the currency pair will rally to the upside given that the Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold levels. However, if the bearish momentum continues, the common currency could break below the 1.1627 level. This could signal a bearish trend that could resume. For the week ahead, the EURUSD currency pair is expected to remain flat.
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