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The EUR/USD resumes its falls in the wake of the new week as US yields are on the move again. A busy day with German inflation and the US Core PCE data awaits traders. The technical picture remains bearish for the pair. The EUR/USD is trading around $1.2120, slightly lower on the day. US bonds, [...]
The post Fresh USD strength and underwhelming EZ data weigh on EUR/USD appeared first on Forex Crunch.
AUDNZD had a strong Bullish wave on the Daily chart. The H4 chart shows that the pair found a level of Resistance. The price has been Bearish after breakout the up trending Trend Line. The first H4 candle today was a Bearish candle. The next one came out as a strong Bearish candle with a strong rejection from today’s intraday level of Resistance. If the price keeps coming down and makes a breakout, then we might get an opportunity to sell the pair and make some green pips. Let us have a look at the H4 AUDNZD chart.
AUDNZD Price Action Analysis – 30th April 2018
See today’s 2nd H4 candle. It had a strong rejection from intraday Resistance. The level of 1.06720 is the nearest level of Support here. This has to be broken by an H4 candle. If it gets broken and held by another H4 candle, then an H1 Bearish Engulfing Candle would be the signal to go short on the pair later today. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…
The AUD has a High impact news event today. It is a “Tentative” news event. Thus, we have to keep our eyes on the Forex Calendar to find out whether the news release gets over or not. We would only know once the news is released. If the signal comes after the news event, we are fine to go ahead to take the entry.
AUDNZD Price Action Analysis – 30th April 2018
The post AUDNZD Price Action Analysis – 30th April 2018 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
The Australian dollar fell sharply, reaching the lowest levels since December. Has it bottomed out? A busy week sees the RBA dominating the scene. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian inflation disappointed with a rise of only 0.4% q/q on the headline and 0.5% on the core. [...]
The post AUD/USD Forecast Apr. 30-May 4 – Will the RBA stabilize the fall? appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – May 2018
Since the beginning of the year he EURUSD has been consolidating between support level 1.2150 and resistance level 1.2550. There are no major catalysts to drive and promote clear trends as current monetary policy drivers have been discounted by the market. In order for real trend development to emerge, we really need a strong fundamental catalyst to change the direction of the trend. The EURUSD trading range can be explained by the fact that both the Fed and the ECB are very predictable with their monetary policy decisions and real trends only come out when we have market uncertainty.
With the inflation inching higher, we can see the Fed being more aggressive in normalizing interest rates. Actually, the fed funds futures are already starting to price in one additional rate hike, which means the Fed is going to hike rates four times in 2018. The benchmark interest rate has gone up to 1.75% versus 1.5% previous reading. The ECB also seems reluctant to move away from its ultra –easy monetary policy anytime soon. The market can become complacent of not knowing the exact timing of unwinding the QE program which can be negative for the EURUSD exchange rate.
April was again a very slow trading month as we’ve consolidated the previous gains and moved in a wide trading range. Moving forward the seasonal pattern in May is extremely bearish but we should look for a low to be formed in mid-May. The seasonal pattern only gives us the tendency of a particular currency to exhibit a certain behavior at a certain time, so we have to carefully monitor the pattern and how the fundamental forces interact with the price action. Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EURUSD volatility.
“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.”
– Paul Tudor Jones
Moving forward, into a new trading month we can highlight what are the main risk events that can disrupt the market volatility and which can potentially set in motion new trends.
Now, let’s move forward and see what the biggest risk events in May2018 are:
The post Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – May 2018 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
EUR/UDS dropped to the lowest level since January as King Dollar stormed the board. What’s next? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and notes that the pair has confirmed a triangle top on the daily chart. “The rallies in both US dollar indices (DXY and BBDXY) [...]
The post EUR/USD: Confirming Tactical Triangle Top; Staying Short targeting 1.15 – BofAML appeared first on Forex Crunch.
USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th April to 4th May 2018
Technical Outlook: Price action in USDCHF powered ahead but the currency pair was seen failing to post a convincing close above the resistance zone of 0.9894 – 0.9861. In the near term, we expect to see a correction in the price action. The 4-hour Stochastic has triggered an overbought market at the current levels which coincides with the resistance zone. Therefore, we expect the USDCHF to potentially correct lower. Initial support is seen at 0.9821 level which could be tested in the short term. However, USDCHF is likely to push lower to establish support at 0.9629 which could be tested in the medium term.
Fundamental Outlook: Data from Switzerland is also looking at a quiet week ahead in terms of economic releases. However, data from the U.S. will see a busy week that could keep the USDCHF in pay. The week starts off with the U.S. core PCE price index data alongside consumer spending data. The week will also see the release of the monthly ISM manufacturing PMI data and will be later followed up by the FOMC meeting and the monthly jobs report.
Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast
The post USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th April to 4th May 2018 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair posted strong gains on the back of a weaker Japanese yen. Price action touched a two month high at 109.14 before easing back on the day. With the current consolidation taking place near the highs, we expect to see a correction in price action in the near term. The main support level at 107.78 – 107.64 is most likely to be tested in the near term unless USDJPY manages to post a fresh high above 109.14. The 4-hour Stochastics oscillator a bit overstretched validating this view.
Fundamental Outlook: Following a busy week that concluded which saw the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, the week ahead is quiet as far as data from Japan is concerned. The Tokyo markets are closed on Monday which makes it a short and a quiet trading week. Still, the Japanese yen may be influenced by the global themes that could reflect the overall investor sentiment in the markets. The Japanese yen will also be influenced by the FOMC meeting due this week. No changes to interest rates are expected at this week’s meeting.
Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast
The post USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th April to 4th May 2018 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th April to 4th May 2018
Technical Outlook: The EURUSD currency pair posted strong declines last week as price fell to a three month low towards 1.2055. The sell off in the EURUSD currency pair came as the ECB maintained its monetary policy unchanged. Despite the central bank brushing aside concerns of the recent weak stretch of economic data, the currency pair fell sharply as the U.S. dollar was seen strengthening. The decline to the current lows however looks oversold with the potential for the currency pair to post a modest short term correction. If the EURUSD manages to breakout above the local highs of 1.2112, then we expect the upside momentum to push the price toward the immediate resistance level at 1.2200.
Fundamental Outlook: The economic calendar from the Eurozone is relatively quiet. Most of the data points to second tier information which includes the German retail sales report due on Monday. Flash inflation estimates for both Germany and the Eurozone will be coming out this week. The report will cover the inflation data for the month of April. The preliminary GDP report for the quarter ending March 2018 will also be coming out. The Eurozone’s GDP growth is expected to be somewhat modest during the first quarter after posting strong growth last year.
Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
The post EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 30th April to 4th May 2018 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
The US was forecast to report a slowdown in the first quarter of 2018: an annualized growth rate of 2.0% after 2.9% in the last quarter of 2017. The first quarters of each year often suffer from weak data and the economy picks up later on. However, real expectations may be slightly higher after Durable [...]
The post US GDP Q1 first release live coverage appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The EUR/USD trades at the lowest levels since mid-January, fueled mostly by USD strength. Mediocre euro-zone data is not helping and the US GDP could provide another blow. The technical picture points to emerging oversold conditions. The EUR/USD is trading around $1.2070, suffering the third day of sharp falls. The US Dollar continues gaining traction [...]
The post After the downfall, EUR/USD may be extra stretched appeared first on Forex Crunch.
After the EUR/USD fell off the cliff described on Thursday, it is getting used to new lows. The Technical Confluences Indicator shows the new levels to watch on the downside. $1.2060 is the convergence of the Pivot Point one-week Support 3, the PP one-day S1 and the 15m low. Further below, strong support awaits just below the round number. At [...]
The post Where next for the EUR/USD after the big fall? Targets appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The EUR/USD fell quickly to a new low at $1.2114, the lowest since January 12th. The move comes amid hopes on US-Chinese trade relations and a resumption of the US Dollar rally. The move completely erases the Draghi-related gains seen earlier. The EUR/USD is trading around at the lowest levels since January 12th, making a sharp U-turn [...]
The post EUR/USD: Draghi giveth, Kudlow taketh away appeared first on Forex Crunch.