
Developed and developing economies would see different benefits if their central banks issued a cryptocurrency.
via CoinDesk
The party may have been too early, and not for the first time. The reported deal on a divorce bill of 45-55 billion euros ran into denials. And also the reports about an upcoming agreement on the Irish border run into obstacles. Theresa May’s government relies on support from the Unionist Northern Irish DUP party. [...]
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Optimism is rampant for a big Brexit breakthrough. First, we learned that the May is ready to open the checkbook regarding the divorce bill. Now, we also learn that Dublin and London are drawing closer to some kind of an agreement on the Irish border. And to top it off, the Times report also discusses a [...]
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US data looks good, extending the trend. The core PCE PRice Index rose by 0.2% m/m and enjoyed an upwards revision. Jobless claims slipped to 238K. The US dollar got more reasons to rise. On the last day of November, the US released quite a few pieces of economic indicators. The Fed’s favorite inflation figure, [...]
The post US Core PCE Price Index rises 1.4% y/y as expected – USD looks good appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The US Senate is rushing to vote and approve a massive tax cut program. The rise of the threshold for the maximum tax rate to around $1 million will benefit the richest Americans. The cut of the corporate tax will help the stock market, but will unlikely trigger extra growth, at least when factoring the [...]
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Inflation is a global issue, better said: lack thereof. Headline CPI missed expectations with only 1.5% y/y in November in the Flash report. Core inflation also fell short with only 0.9%. Good news does come from the unemployment front: a surprising fall to 8.8%. EUR/USD is falling, hitting a new session low of 1.1810, below [...]
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Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Dec 2017
The EURUSD has continued to consolidate the gains achieved so far in 2017 and as we enter into the last month of this year we can expect more of the same from EURUSD price action. The Fed seems reluctant to provide any further evidence that they are ready to commit one more rate hike in 2017 and they still haven’t provided a clear timeline to reduce their balance sheet. On the other side of the monetary policy spectrum, we have the ECB which has signaled that it might start unwinding their balance sheet, as well as the inflation expectation, are very close to the ECB target.
In essence, the EURUSD s driven by both central banks: the Fed and the ECB. For the time being the ECB is expected to keep the 2.3 trillion assets purchasing program, but the market move in anticipation of monetary policy decisions which is why the EURUSD has continued to rally throughout this year. The market focus is now shifting to a new month – December which can provide us with plenty of fundamental drivers that can impact the market volatility and the EURUSD exchange rate.
The month of December is set to be a very active month if the current level of volatility will persist. The December seasonal pattern sees the US dollar falling even further so we don’t have reason to expect the current rally to end anytime soon unless a full-scale risk aversion kicks in, which will be bearish for EUR/USD exchange rate. The seasonal pattern only gives us the tendency of a particular currency to exhibit a certain behavior at a certain time, so we have to carefully monitor the pattern and how the fundamental forces interact with the price action. Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EURUSD volatility.
“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.”
– Paul Tudor Jones
We have to keep in mind that December can also be a very slow month in terms of trading activity because we enter the holiday season.
Firstly, we have the Fed interest rate decision which probably is set to hike rates by 0.25% despite growing concerns over the persistence weakness in inflation. Secondly, we have the ECB, which can give us some hints on its monetary policy and the QE tapering process. With inflation picking up and the EURUSD exchange rate moving higher there are high chances the ECB president Mario Draghi to give hints in regard to the start of the tapering process.
The post Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Dec 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
The Australian dollar was being carried down by the strength of the US dollar. The greenback enjoyed an upgrade to GDP, hopes for an approval on a tax cut, and also a relatively positive speech from Janet Yellen. Fortunately for the Aussie, it had some better-than-expected data of its own. Here are the key figures [...]
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Bitcoin is not alone in setting new records at very round levels. The price of the second most popular cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is trading above $500. The high so far is $548 but liquidity remains relatively low. The rise today is 8%, below the advance of around 13% that bitcoin is experiencing. But looking at the [...]
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New York Fed President Bill Dudley said that perhaps the Federal Reserve should start thinking about its own digital currency. He acknowledges the value of blockchain technology. BTC/UDS is now at 11111.11 US dollar and continues climbing more coming
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Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounds slightly more optimistic than last week. The changes may be very subtle, but they are enough to support the dollar. The greenback is already enjoying optimism that Congress will eventually pass a significant tax cut. The greenback is gaining across the board. Yellen’s prepared statement towards her testimony later on [...]
The post Yellen mostly positive – USD likes it appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in Q3 2017 according to the updated estimate. This is slightly better than 3.2% that was expected and above 3% originally reported. Q2 saw 3.1%. Corporate profits are up but not as much as beforehand. 4.3% q/q, 5.4% y/y. The US dollar was already gaining [...]
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A better than expected inflation read from Germany: annual inflation is now 1.8%, a jump from 1.5% in October. Month over month, prices are up 0.3%. We have the same numbers in both the national and HICP measures. EUR/USD is not really enjoying it, extending the slide and reaching 1.1835. Germany was expected to report a [...]
The post German inflation beats expectations with 1.8% y/y – EUR/USD ignores appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Pound/dollar is at its highest level in two months, settling above the 1.34 level after posting a high at 1.3430. The driver is clear: reports about the UK agreeing to high divorce bill. This, in turn, unlocks the next stage of the talks regarding future negotiations. Yet perhaps Christmas came too early for the pound. [...]
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A report about the British government accepting to pay a high Brexit divorce bill sent the pound higher. And now it is taking another leg up. Pound/dollar is already trading at 1.3415 1.3428, the highest in around two months. An outline of the Brexit divorce bill is much closer to the EU demands of 60 [...]
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