The New Zealand dollar doesn’t provide too many technical indicators, but it certainly has its share of technical setups. Here are two trading ideas: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: AUD/NZD: A ‘Fading Star’; What’s The Trade? – ANZ ANZ FX Strategy Research favors fading NZD strength from here arguing that the good news story [...]
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The good news from the US keeps on flowing: Q2 GDP was revised up to the magic number of 3% annualized. President Trump will probably take a victory lap on this number. Among the details: personal consumption is up to 3.3% from 2.8%. The GDP prices index remains at 1% and core PCE at 0.9%. [...]
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ADP was expected to report a gain of around 183K private sector jobs in August. In July, the payrolls software company reported a rise of 178K jobs. This report serves as a hint towards Friday’s NFP, despite not always providing a direct correlation with the official BLS number. The US dollar continued its path of [...]
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A slightly stronger level of inflation, at least in the European standard “Harmonized” version, HICP. prices rose by 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y, another acceleration that will push euro-zone inflation higher. Price rises stood at 1.5% y/y beforehand in the HICP and 1.7% in the national level. So, the euro-zone inflation level could be higher [...]
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The Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure was expected to tick down from 121.1 points in July to 120.3 in August. Earlier, the S&P Case Shiller 20-city HPI rose by 5.65% y/y, as expected. The US dollar was on the back foot, with EUR/USD breaking above 1.20, USD/JPY edging closer to the lows, GBP/USD sneaking its way [...]
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This could be a more volatile NFP for various reasons. Will the dollar continue falling or will it bounce back like it did in reaction to the previous jobs report? Here are five reasons why this report could trigger a higher level of volatility, followed by expectations and scenarios for a reaction. 5 reasons for [...]
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EUR/USD was only gradually getting closer to 1.20, but when it made a move, it was quite significant, to say the least. EUR/USD is already trading at 1.2067, a gain of around 90 pips on the day. After breaking above 1.20, the pair reached these new levels after an hour and 15 minutes. On the [...]
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Is the UK getting closer to a softer Brexit? The government has already “climbed down” from a firm objection to having foreign courts making judgements on British matters. “Blurring the red lines” by the government has now been compounded with an end to ambiguity by the opposition. The Labour Party announced it is ending its [...]
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EUR/USD is trading higher following the speeches of Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. What’s next? Here is the bottom line from Nordea: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Nordea FX Strategy Research notes that even with no news speeches from Fed Yellen and ECB Draghi at Jackson Hole, EUR/USD actually did care, [...]
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EURUSD finished with huge bullish momentum last week. The pair broke some significant level of resistance and the buyers will be keen to buy the pair more on weakness next week. Some high impact news events are to take place next week. Let us have a look at those.
Intraday EuroUsd traders should deal with this carefully since it often produces huge spikes on the intraday charts.
This news event has the potential to produce extreme volatility and opportunities for the intraday traders.
This is another news event, which has to be taken care of by the intraday traders.
It does not always create volatility, but it could be a very volatile news event since it is directly related to the USD and Oil.
First Unemployment data of the month always plays an important role in the market. Thus, traders should be careful before this news event, but look for the opportunities after the news event’s impact.
EURUSD traders please be very careful before these news events. The pair is bound to get to its extreme volatility level. Traders who trade on big time frames, this would be the day to look for their trading opportunities.
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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017
The AUDUSD has been trapped inside a very narrow range few pips below the big psychological resistance 0.8000. The 0.8000 resistance level remain the key level and the line in the sand, a break and a daily close above this figure will open the door for the bullish trend to resume.
The stochastic indicator is already in overbought territory a signal that can trigger early in the week a retest of intraday support level 0.7875. A break and a daily close below support level will open up the door for a retest of 0.7790. However, as long as we trade within the limits of the current range expect more consolidation.On the Australian economic calendar we can’t see any notable risk event so expect the market to be driven more by the technical levels.
Previous AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
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USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017
The USDCAD continued to drift lower in a very slow market and a tight range. The weekly break and close below the big psychological number is very bearish and now there is a possibility to take the current year low of 1.2410. A break and a daily close below can open up the door for more downside pressure and a retest of next important support level 1.2300.
However, as long as we stay above 1.2410, we can still see a bounce early in the week since the stochastic indicator is in an oversold condition. The first level of resistance is obviously 1.2500 followed by 1.2570. A daily break and close above can open up the door for a deeper retracement towards 1.2750.The only notable risk event on the Canadian economic calendar is the second quarter GDP reading which is on track to hit 3.7% annualized rate.
Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast
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GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017
The GBPUSD has ended the previous week almost on a flat note. Last week sell off found a bottom at 1.2774 which now is the key support level going forward into the new week. However, first we need a break below 1.2840 to open up for a possible retest of last week low. The stochastic indicator is already in oversold conditions so we might see first at least a pause in the current rally. On the upside 1.2918 intraday resistances is the first hurdle for the bulls. But, the major resistance level remains the big psychological number 1.3000. A daily break and close above this figure is very bullish and it can be the start of another leg higher possibly toward a new year high.
The UK economic calendar will not bring any notable risk event that can prop higher the GBP/USD volatility. Monday we’ll have low activity due to Summer Bank Holiday. The only significant risk event is the Inflation Report Hearings scheduled on Wednesday. From the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, we have the NFP report on the first Friday of a new month. Based on the market consensus we should expect a figure below the 200k mark of only 185k versus 209k previous reading.
Previous GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017
Technical Outlook: The USDCHF gave up the gains from 0.9730 and pushed lower to test the previous support at 0.9564. Price action suggests that the inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play. However, price action at 0.9564 will be crucial. A reversal off this level is required for USDCHF to post a reversal. A retest of the inverse head and shoulders neckline resistance needs to be cleared for further gains towards 0.9861. In the event that USDCHF breaks below 0.9564, then the inverse head and shoulders pattern could be invalidated with the next support coming in at the July lows of 0.9454.
Fundamental Outlook: Switzerland’s economic calendar this week will focus on the retail sales and manufacturing PMI numbers which are unlikely to move the market much. Amid a rather quiet trading week, the Swiss franc will be looking to clues from the U.S. dollar which is heading into a rather busy week. In the U.S. important economic releases this week include the second GDP estimates for the second quarter, while on Friday the payrolls report will keep the markets on the edge.
Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast
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USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017
Technical Outlook: The USDJPY continued to maintain its range bound price action between 109.70 and 109.07. However, there is a potential for the U.S. dollar to break this range. The bias is balanced at the moment and a breakout or a breakdown from the range could establish the near term direction in the currency pair. To the upside, USDJPY will need to break out convincingly in order for price to retest the resistance level at 110.80. To the downside, below 109.07, USDJPY could be seen pushing lower towards 108 levels. The trend lines are likely to serve as dynamic support and resistance levels as a result.
Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan next week will see the BoJ’s core CPI coming up. No major changes are expected as Japan continues to struggle to revive inflation. Industrial production numbers will be due later in the week while the final manufacturing PMI for August will be coming up on Friday. Manufacturing sector in Japan has been steadily declining for the past three months. However, it has held steady above the 50 handle which suggests continued growth in the sector. Wrapping up the week, household spending and unemployment rate numbers will be released as well marking a rather busy week for the yen.
Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast
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EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 28th Aug to 1st Sept 2017
Technical Outlook: The EURUSD posted strong gains on Friday with the volatility coming on the back of the Jackson Hole Symposium. With Janet Yellen not addressing monetary policy, the U.S. dollar fell sharply. EURUSD broke to the upside breaking out from the range of 1.1825 to rise to highs of 1.1941 by Friday’s close. Further gains can be seen coming with EURUSD likely to test 1.2000 level. There is also a gap at this level that is likely to be filled. In the near term any dips in the euro will make for a good buying opportunity. A retest to the breakout level at 1.1825 remains the most likely price level in EURUSD.
Fundamental Outlook: Economic data from the Eurozone goes into full steam with Friday marking a new trading month. Focus will be on the retail sales and CPI numbers out of Germany which will be key for the markets, especially as the Euro heads into an election month in Germany. France is also expected to come out with the preliminary GDP estimates. Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s flash estimates for August will be coming up and data suggests that inflation remained broadly stable. This could potentially confirm the view that the ECB will need to look at tightening monetary policy in the near term. This was also seen by the fact that last week’s flash manufacturing and services PMI suggested a build up of price pressures.
Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
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The EURUSD has continued to reach fresh new highs for the year, breaching above 1.1900 a level not seen since April 2015. The main driver behind the EURUSD rally is the Fed as they have indicated current economic conditions are supporting another rate hike. So, in essence, this move is not about euro strength, but more about dollar weakness. The ECB is also expected to take a decision on the future of its QE bond buying program. So, there has been speculation that Mario Draghi will announce this autumn to unwind the 2.3 trillion euro bond buying program.
Monthly Forex News Events that Might Affect EURUSD Volatility – Sept 2017
The market focus is now shifting to a new month – September which can provide us with plenty of fundamental drivers that can impact the market volatility and the EURUSD exchange rate. The month of September is set to be a very active month if the current level of volatility will persist, and we can expect even more volatility as now the summer is over and many traders return back to their desks. The curious thing is that September seasonal pattern sees the US dollar falling even further so we don’t have reason to expect the current rally to end anytime soon unless a full-scale risk aversion kicks in, which will be bearish for EURUSD exchange rate. The German election will almost certainly add more spice to the month. So watch out!
The seasonal pattern only gives us the tendency of a particular currency to exhibit a certain behavior at a certain time, so we have to carefully monitor the pattern and how the fundamental forces interact with the price action. Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EURUSD volatility.
“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.” Paul Tudor Jones
In September we have two main risk events. Firstly, we have the Fed interest rate decision which probably is the last chance for the Fed to signal its intention to stay on track for one more rate hike or to adopt a dovish stance. Secondly, we have the ECB, which can give us some hints on its monetary policy and the QE program. With inflation picking up and the EUR/USD exchange rate moving higher there are high chances the ECB president Mario Draghi to give hints in regard to the start of the tapering process.
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What had markets expected? In any case, Yellen did not provide any surprises. And this was enough to send the US dollar tumbling down. The Chair of the Fed discussed changes to financial regulations and said they should be modest. This is not market-related. Will she say something else during the weekend-long retreat at Jackson [...]
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Business confidence remains elevated in Germany. IFO’s business climate makes a very minor slide from 116 to 115.9, better than 115.5 predicted. Business expectations advanced from 107.3 to 107.9, defying projections for a fall. The Current Assessment measure dropped from 125.5 to 124.6. EUR/USD is moving up a few pips, erasing the previous slides. The [...]
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A small miss: 5.44 million against 5.57, a drop of 1.3% instead of an expected rise. The data is not shocking, but enough to push the greenback a few pips lower. A significant follow-through seems unlikely. Markets are taking it easy, waiting for the bigger event which is the Jackson Hole Symposium at Wyoming. Sales [...]
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The second estimate of UK GDP was expected to confirm the initial read of 0.3% q/q and 1.7% y/y. The level of investment was expected to rise by 0.2% and services by 0.5%. GBP/USD was bouncing from the lows, moving above 1.28 ahead of the publication. But in general, Sterling is weak. EUR/GBP is trading [...]
The post UK revised GDP Q2 confirmed at 0.3% q/q, 1.7% y/y – GBP/USD retreats appeared first on Forex Crunch.
EUR/GBP is trading around the highest levels since 2009, in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. The cross reflects the weakness of the pound in light of Brexit uncertainty and the resilience of the euro ahead of Draghi’s expected pre-announcement of QE tapering. 0.9237 has been the highest level seen so far in 2017. [...]
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US new home sales fell short of expectations falling by 9.4% to 571K. However, the fall is from 630K in June, an upwards revision from the original release. The fall in July is attributed to supply rather than demand. Nevertheless, the US dollar is falling across the board. Perhaps the publication serves as an excuse [...]
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Germany’s manufacturing sector is firing on all engines, at least according to the manufacturing PMI. It jumped to 59.4 points, much better than projected. The services PMI also came out above expectations, but only just: 53.4 points. EUR/USD is moving up, trading at 1.1770 after reaching a high of 1.1777. The pair trades in a [...]
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Calm summer markets and a “presidential” statement from Trump on Afghanistan allowed USD/JPY to rise. Without any issues, there is less demand for the safe-haven yen. This was enough to send USD/JPY from the lows of 108.60 to 109.80. And then Trump returned to his own self. In a campaign-style speech in Phoenix, the President [...]
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The pound was one of the weaker currencies in recent weeks and when the opportunity comes, it falls over. This opportunity is the stronger dollar. The wind is now sailing in favor of the greenback. For the euro, this means a swing lower within the range. For the pound, it means dropping to lower ground. [...]
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The ZEW economic sentiment falls short of expectations with a score of 10 points. The current conditions component stands at 86.7, slightly better than expected, but the economic sentiment seems to have the upper hand. EUR/USD slips under 1.1770, a small drop from the levels seen just before the release. Germany’s ZEW think-tank was expected [...]
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EUR/USD holds onto its range quite nicely. What’s next? Here are two opinions: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: EUR/USD: Neutral Here; Stabilizing Before Attempting To Breach 1.2000-Level – BTMU BTMU FX Strategy Research thinks that EUR/USD is stabilizing around current levels before it attempted to breach the 1.2000-level. “The pair appears to be driven [...]
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The European Central Bank (ECB) released its monetary policy meeting from the July 19 – 20 central bank meeting. The ECB left monetary policy and its bond purchase program at the July meeting. While the ECB did not change its language on forward guidance, the meeting minutes showed that members deliberated on some points. The [...]
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A Guide on How to Read Forex Charts The method of predicting price changes in any forex currency pair is both a science and a skill. The process itself is scientific: utilising existing data and analysing information and results. However, the way these results are applied to a trade is based on the judgement of [...]
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The US dollar found its footing, stabilizing after long weeks of losses. What’s next? The team at CIBC already looks into the end of the year. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: CIBC FX Strategy Research notes that policymakers in the US have appeared reasonably comfortable that inflation will start to heat up again. [...]
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Trend lines are probably the most simplest of all methods when it comes to trading with price action. A trend line simply shows you what the current trend is. Depending on the time frame that you choose, the trend lines can differ. There are just two types of trend lines. A falling trend line which depicts the downtrend or the bear market and a rising trend line which depicts the rising trend line in an uptrend or in a bull market.
It is important to note that trend lines can change depending on the chart time frame. For example, if the trend on an intraday chart is down, you would most likely be plotting a falling trend. However, if you switch to a higher time frame and depending on the bigger trend, you could plot a rising or even a falling trend line. This can get a bit confusing especially if you are new to trading; having said that, trend lines are simple and easy to understand.The biggest advantage of using a trend line is that you can combine it with price action methods, or you can use the trend lines in conjunction with technical indicators as well.
In this article, we explore in detail about trend lines and how to draw a trend line. There are many technical indicators that claim to plot a trend line automatically. While it might seem easy to use these automated trend line drawing indicators, nothing beats the fact that drawing trend lines by hand is a better approach. It is also important to understand that the concept of trend lines can change based on one perception to another. Thus, there is some objectivity involved. But do not get too bogged down by these minor details as the larger concept (the trend) is still relevant.
The purpose of drawing a trendline is to ascertain whether the current will continue in the same direction or if the trend can change. Most traders make the mistake that a broken trend line means a change of trend. This is partially true. But, the important point to note here is that a broken trend line could simply mean a deeper retracement or a pullback to the trend, or it could indeed signal a change of trend.
This is where trend lines can help. By understanding trends, you can easily take the help of trend lines and figure out what prices are doing. Trend lines can be traded in two ways. You can either trade the break of a trend line, or you could wait for the retracement to be completed and enter in the direction of a trend.
Thus, trend lines can help you to either trade in the direction of a trend, or trade a counter-trend move or a retracement. The key point to success with trend line trading is in knowing how to plot the trend line.
Trend lines are important as it can give you the larger context of the market. To put it in simple terms, trend lines can tell you whether the current trend has ended. Then, you can look at the larger view and understand if this change of trend is temporary or if a new trend has been established. This knowledge comes from firstly understanding what trend trading is. You can refer to this article to get to know all about trend trading. Then, you can apply that knowledge to the concept of trend line trading to better your odds of making more successful trades.
A trend line is typically at an angle of 45 degrees. But in reality this is not always the case. Similarly, some believe that trend lines should have at least three contact points. But again this is a text book example and real life trading seldom aligns itself to the best examples. Therefore experience and practice will be your best guide in plotting trend lines.
Assuming that you have read the previous article about trend trading, we already know that in an uptrend, price makes higher highs and higher lows. Similarly, in a downtrend, price will make lower highs and lower lows.
In an uptrend, you would be focusing on the higher lower. Then, connecting these higher lows you can draw the rising trend line. When this rising trend line is breached, you can expect to see a retracement or a change in trend. In a downtrend, your focus would be on the lower highs. Connecting the subsequent lower highs, you would draw a falling trend line. When this falling trend line is breached, you will then know that prices are changing the trend or simply making a retracement.
In figure 1, we have a rising trend line example. The higher lows highlighted are the levels that we use to connect. Here, we make use of two higher lows to plot the trend line. This becomes our reference for the uptrend. When price breaks this rising trend line, we can know that the trend is changing. Traders typically look for the break of the trend line and use the opportunity to trade the short term retracement or a trend change.
Figure 1: Plotting a rising trend line
In a downtrend, you would use the lower highs to plot the falling trend line. When this falling trend line is broken, you can then expect to see a short term reversal, thus going long on the market. The next chart in Figure 2 illustrates a falling trend line.
Figure 2: Plotting a falling trend line
In the above example, you can see the falling trend line forming after the two lower highs are used as the reference point. Once the falling trend line is breached you can see how quickly price changes the trend, rising rapidly. The most important part about trend line trading is the break out of the trend line itself. This will give lot of trading opportunities. Day traders use the trend line break out method in order to enter the direction of the break out which will give some quick profits.
The most common way to trade the rising trend line is to wait for price to break this trend line. When this occurs, traders sell into the breakout level and set the initial target to the most nearest higher low (which is the second higher low in the above example). The stop loss in this case is placed at the recent higher high that formed just before the trend line breakout. As you can see in the above example, the stops would be placed at the recent highest high that was formed prior to the breakout of the rising trend line.
With a falling trend line, you would be buying the break out of the trend line. When a falling trend line is breached, price moves in the opposite direction, thus warranting a long position. Similar to a rising trend line, your entry would be at the breakout of the trend line. Stops would be placed at the recent lows while the initial target would be the immediate lower high that was used for plotting the falling trend line.
Trend line trading can be very beneficial but comes at the cost of getting familiar with this method of trading. Trend line trading can be combined with other technical indicators such as moving averages in order to confirm the change of trend. With trend lines, you can easily trade with the trend and be alerted as to a possible change of trend whenever there is a break to the trend line. There are many trading opportunities that can be created with trend lines. While it might seem a bit subjective, with enough practice traders can trade the trend lines with confidence.
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Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 3rd to 7th July 2017
EURUSD finished the last week’s candle as a bearish candle but with some rejection from the South. Since the overall trend is with bull, so the pair might attract the buyers to buy the pair next week. Some high impact news events might create volatility on EURUSD next week. Let us have a look at the schedule of those.
ECB president Draghi speaks
This is one high impact news event for the pair. However, the event is going to take place bit earlier than its usual timing. Thus, the pair might not get as volatile as it normally gets. Nonetheless, traders should be careful about taking entries just before this news event. Some good trading opportunities might come out after the news event.
Crude oil inventories
This could be very volatile too. Traders had better keep an eye on this and look for the trading opportunities after the news event.
Unemployment claims
Another huge news event for the pair, which usually makes the pair move abruptly. The news event can be very fruitful for the traders if it is dealt accordingly.
Core durable Goods orders m/m
This news event gets very volatile in some weeks since it is the last high impact news event of a week related to the USD. It does not offer that many opportunities either. It ends up producing long spikes on the intraday charts. Thus, traders should be very careful to deal with this.
The post Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 21st to 25th August 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 21st to 25th Aug 2017
After a deep retracement the USDCAD is now resuming the big picture downtrend. However, as long as we’re trading above the big psychological number 1.2500 there is a risk for the current retracement to have another attempt to retest last week high 1.2870. A break and a daily close above last week’s high will expose 1.2850 next key resistance levels. On the downside a break below 1.2500 will open the door for a retest of the 1.2410 support level. The stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory and we might have to wait before any real bearish momentum to be seen.
The Canadian economic calendar doesn’t have much to offer in terms of risk events other than the Retail Sales scheduled on Tuesday. However, we have the US Durable Goods Orders on Friday which can act as a proxy-risk event for the US dollar. The BOC Governor Poloz is also expected to attend the Jackson Hole Symposium and his comments will for sure give more clarity to the USD/CAD exchange rate.
Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast
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AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 21st to 25th Aug 2017
The AUDUSD continues to trade in a very precise trading range. The big psychological number 0.8000 is still holding the upside quite well and is acting as the resistance of the trading range. A break above 0.8000 and a daily close will expose the 0.8065 current year’s high and will open up the door for the bullish trend.
The stochastic indicator is not quite yet in overbought territory, so early in the week we can expect a little bit of more upside before finally to retest again the first level of support 0.7875. A break below this will expose the 0.7790 support level. There is no news events scheduled on the Australian economic calendar. However RBA governor Lowe is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
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