Aussie/USD is struggling to hold onto the 0.74 level. The pair dropped to 0.7385, just above support at 0.7375. A further cushion awaits at 0.7325. Chinese data has the upper hand. The independent measure of China’s manufacturing sector now reflects a contraction in the sector. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 to 49.6, more than 50.2 expected. The [...]
The post AUD/USD hit by Chinese PMIs, ignores Australian data appeared first on Forex Crunch.
After core inflation had already reached the highest since 2013, it fell back and even more than expected. This should not deter the ECB, says the team at ABN-AMRO: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: ABN AMRO FX Strategy Research notes that Eurozone inflation dropped lower in May, as headline rate declined to 1.4%, down [...]
The post EUR: ECB To Stay On Course For Tapering Despite Drop In Core Inflation – ABN AMRO appeared first on Forex Crunch.
more coming
The post Canadian GDP beats with 0.5% m/m – USD/CAD falls appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The euro-zone was expected to report a slowdown in inflation. Headline CPI carried expectations for 1.5% after 1.9% seen in April. Core inflation was predicted to slip from 1.2%, the highest since 2013, to 1% in May. Early indicators from Germany, France, and Spain all pointed to even lower figures, as the actual data missed [...]
The post Euro-zone core inflation misses with 0.9% appeared first on Forex Crunch.
EUR/USD continues its recovery after bouncing off low support. If the previous moves were more related to cherry-picking good data and ignoring the weaker figures, now the pair has more substantial reasons to rise. According to a report, the European Central Bank is set to remove its easing bias in the June meeting. The Frankfurt-based Institute will [...]
The post EUR/USD clearly breaks resistance on ECB rumors, weak US inflation appeared first on Forex Crunch.
EUR/USD was struggling at the bottom of the range as volume returned to normal. Traders in the UK and in the US are back to business. Yet after the initial sell-off, the pair is recovering. The good news comes from France’s GDP report. The updated estimate show a growth rate of 0.4% q/q in Q1, [...]
The post EUR/USD cherry-picks its favorite data and rises to resistance appeared first on Forex Crunch.
This week will be shorter, but it does not mean less volatile. Some of the major news expected for the rest of the week is: Tuesday: PCE Price Index Thursday: ADP Unemployment Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) The biggest event of the week is expected to be the NFP on Friday. The Actual is 211K vs. [...]
The post NFP vs the UK Election – What could potentially go wrong appeared first on Forex Crunch.
What is the Fed trying to tell us? Markets are anticipating the Fed decision in June and might be caught wrong-footed. OPEC made its decision and we had a “sell the fact” reaction. But there’s much more inside. We top it off with previewing the next week. You are welcome to listen, subscribe, provide feedback and pledge [...]
The post Poking holes in the FOMC and OPEC – MM #146 appeared first on Forex Crunch.
GBP/USD made an attempt to recover and is now sliding once again. UK PM Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn both gave lengthy interviews to Jeremy Paxman. The formidable interviewer clashed with both of them. Some analysts suggest that Corbyn “beat expectations”, yet these expectations were set quite low. The debates usually fail to make [...]
The post GBP/USD struggles to recover as UK polls continue tightening appeared first on Forex Crunch.
EUR/USD is clinging to support at 1.1120, but only just. This is one leg lower from the previous support line of 1.1160 and almost 150 lows from the cycle of 1.1266. 1.1120 worked as support back in October 2016 and returns to its old role. Further support awaits at 1.1050, followed by 1.0950, which was the initial [...]
The post EUR/USD drops to low support on Draghi, Greece appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
Join The Price Action Club Here…
EURGBP has been bullish on the H4 and the H1 chart. The price has kept going up and continued to make new higher high. Moreover, today the price has made another H4 breakout at an important level of resistance. This means the pair might offer us a long entry if things go according to the trade setup that has been shared below. Let us have a look at the H4 chart of EURGBP…
Here we have used the H4 chart to spot out our trade setup, but we are going to wait for an H1 reversal candle at the breakout level. Since today’s price action has been bullish from the first hour of the trading day, so this is actually a trade based on H1 confirmation. That is why stop loss is set below today’s lower low as well. If we wait for an H4 reversal candle here, we might get too late to take the entry.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 26th May 2017
Join The Price Action Club Here…
The post EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 26th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
NZDUSD had been bearish two weeks ago. However, the last two weeks have been bullish with the pair. The pair breached an important level of resistance on its bull journey as well. As things stand with NZDUSD, the price might come back to that level to confirm the level of flip over support. If it really happens then buyers will jump into the pair to drive the price towards the North again. Let us have a look at the H4 chart of NZDUSD…
NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 24th May 2017
As we see that, the pair has been bullish on the H4 chart. The level of 0.69475 got breached, which was a massive level of resistance earlier. The price went up to 0.70450 after the breakout and then started having correction. If the price comes back at the level of 0.69475, and produces a Daily reversal candle right at that level, then buying NZDUSD would get some green pips for the buyers. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade
The chart that we have used here for the trade setup is an H4 chart, but the reversal candle should be a Daily candle. This is because that the level of resistance was actually a daily resistance, where the price got rejected twice on the H4 chart recently (see the marks on the chart). Thus, taking the entry after a Daily reversal candle would be more rewarding.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 24th May 2017
The post NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 24th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Mario Draghi is not a drag on the euro today. He leans towards the glass half full by saying that downside risks are diminishing. Speaking against a backdrop of thin volume, markets are moving. At least not yet. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1186, up from support at around 1.1160 seen earlier in the day. However, the pair [...]
The post Draghi sounds optimistic – will EUR/USD rise? appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
EURUSD had a slightly bearish week. However, if we consider the week one before that, then EURUSD is still in the bullish mode. Next week there are some high impact news events that will create volatility on the pair. Let us have a look at the schedule of those news events.
Although, this Monday is going to be a bank holiday in the US, but Draghi’s speech might create volatility on EURUSD. EURUSD traders might as well use this news event as an opportunity once the market is settled after his speech.
A news event, which creates spikes and sweep off Intraday stop losses.
Usually this is one of the massive news events for EUROUSD of a trading week. Traders should be more careful to deal with this news event since the next Thursday is the first day of the month.
EURUSD traders must be careful about these news events next week. Three of them are high impact news events, but Non Farm employment change is the event, which normally creates extreme volatility. The data of this news event often set the tone of EURUSD for the rest of the month. No way Intraday traders should take any entry just before this news hour. However, big time frame traders might use it as a huge opportunity if they know which page they are on.
The post Weekly Forex News Events for EURUSD – 29th May to 2nd June 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
Join The Price Action Club Here…
XAUUSD or Gold had been choppy for the last 5/6 trading days. However, last Friday the price took a move towards the upside and made a new higher high. The price now has been on correction. There is a good chance that XAUUSD/Gold would offer a long entry once the correction is completed at the right level. Let us have a look at the H4 XAUUSD/Gold chart….
As the chart shows that, there is another level above the recommended level, which has the potential to be a flip over support as well. The price might start reacting from there. However, it is best to wait for the price to come at the recommended level shown on this trade setup. This is when buyers will get more reward than the risk. Moreover, the chance of winning the trade gets much higher as well.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: EURGBP Price Action Analysis – 26th May 2017
Join The Price Action Club Here…
The post XAUUSD Price Action Analysis – 29th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Pound/dollar is trading around 1.2825 after dipping under 1.28 and hitting a new low of 1.2775 on Friday. Before the weekend, we discussed the three reasons for the fall of the pound. Cable had reached the lowest in a montn. One of the drivers was the tightening of opinion polls in the UK. Quite a few [...]
The post GBP/USD recovers from lows amid 6 new opinion polls appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
GBPCAD has been slightly bearish after having some good bullish moves on the Daily chart. However, yesterday BOC’s rate decision made the pair take a move towards the downside. As things stand with GBPCAD, the pair might have a bearish rally next. Let us have a look at the H4 chart of GBPCAD and find out what levels to keep our eyes on to take a short entry on the pair….
GBPCAD Price Action Analysis – 25th May 2017
As we see on the chart, the level of 1.74600 has worked a strong level of resistance and driven the pair down. Moreover, on its way of this bearish ride it broke a level of support, which was at 1.74420. This level has the potential to be the level of resistance. If it really does and produces an H4 reversal candle, then the pair would come down further by offering a short entry to the sellers. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…
Traders at the beginning often want to trade during the newshour to grab some quick pips. They think as an opportunity missed if they do not take an entry during the news hour. However, newshour should be used as an opportunity creator. Like here, yesterday’s news hour broke the support level and there is an opportunity today. For extremely experienced traders it is a different ball game. However, for retail traders it is best to skip news trading to keep their investment
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: GBPCAD Price Action Analysis – 25th May 2017
The post GBPCAD Price Action Analysis – 25th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
The AUDUSD remains almost unchanged from a week ago. Neither the bulls or the bears managed to take control which has kept Aussie in a narrow ranging market. The big psychological number 0.7500 remain the line in the sand and for the time being, it seems a big hurdle for the bulls to pass. The weekly close below 0.7500 also suggests that we at least can expect more range in the coming week. The current AUDUSD range is formed between 0.7500 resistance level and 0.7400 support level followed by 0.7330 swing low. The stochastic indicator also looks oversold so early in the week we can expect a small bounce before support level to be tested again.
On the Australian economic calendar, we can note some risk events as well. On Thursday we have the Australian Retail Sales figures which based on the market consensus should see an uptick to 0.3%. We also have the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI figures as a proxy risk event. On Friday we also have the NFP figure which is the biggest risk event of the week. The US job growth has gained momentum again and based on the market consensus we should expect 185K new jobs added and while this is below 211k last reading it still remains a positive number.
Previous AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
The post AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
The USDCAD continued to drift lower and while we’re still trading below the big psychological number 1.3500 more downside should be expected. Only a daily break and close above 1.3500 will signal a resumption of the bigger trend. Short-term we can expect a retest of the 1.3300 support level before to see another attempt to break higher.
The stochastic is still in neutral territory which at least in theory this should favor more the short-term trend which is bearish. Another significant level trader needs to pay a close eye is last week low 1.3386. As long as we stay above this level you should also be aware of the possibility of more ranging activity. The Canadian economic calendar has some risk events scheduled. On Wednesday, we have the Canadian GDP, which has stalled in the last months. Thursday we also have the Canadian Manufacturing PMI figures while on Friday we have the Trade balance figures.
Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast
The post USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
The GBPUSD has managed to put a significant sell-off last week, which still looks corrective in nature. We have a major support level the 1.2752 that for the time being is holding the downside. A new marginal high above 1.3000 is required for the cycle that started from the 1.2100 low to be completed. On the upside, we have the first intraday resistance level at 1.2890 while the major resistance still remains the big psychological number 1.3000. The stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory, so early in the week, we can expect a bounce or at least this should limit the downside.
The UK economic calendar looks very mild. On Monday we have the UK Spring Bank Holiday so liquidity should dry away. Traders should be aware of sudden spikes due to the lack of liquidity. On Thursday the only notable risk event is the UK Markit Manufacturing PMI figures which based on the market consensus we should expect a slowdown in the manufacturing activity. The consensus is for a 56.6 figure down from 57.3.
Previous GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
The post GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
Technical Outlook: USDCHF failed to make any pullbacks as price action fell sharply off 1.0100 level towards the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Further downside is expected to come on a move towards 0.9564. However considering the consolidation that is happening at the current 127.2% level, we can expect to see some upside in price. This could potentially trigger a move in USDCHF to testing the resistance level at 0.9861 – 0.9894 region. Alternately, failure to pullback could see the current price level being breached, in which case further downside to 0.9861 – 0.9894 can be expected.
Fundamental Outlook: A slow week from Switzerland, the pace of data picks up on Thursday with the quarterly GDP numbers and the retail sales figures. The Swiss franc is unlikely to be influenced much although data from the U.S. could be the main driver this coming week. The ISM will be reporting on the monthly manufacturing activity on Thursday followed by the monthly jobs report by the commerce department on Friday. Expectations are high with the May jobs reported expected to show 200k+ jobs for May that could potentially seal the deal for a June rate hike.
Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast
The post USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
Technical Outlook: USDJPY failed to breakout any lower from the bearish flag pattern which currently stands invalidated. However, in the process, price action has formed a potential ascending triangle pattern with the resistance formed at 111.93 region. A breakout above this level will signal a move towards 112.97 which marks the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. This level also coincides as a resistance level that previously served as support. The bullish bias is invalidated in the event that USDJPY breaks down below 111.90. In this case, USDJPY could be seen slipping towards the lower support at 110.15.
Fundamental Outlook: A rather busy week from Japan as data turns to the inflation figures and latest monthly manufacturing activity. Japan’s household spending numbers are coming up on Monday followed by the unemployment rate which was recorded at 2.8% last month. The data is followed by the retail sales numbers as well. Combined, the health of consumer spending is likely to shed light on whether there has been any increase in consumer price index. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will be releasing its core CPI figures as well. The new trading month that starts on Thursday will see the manufacturing activity numbers for the month of May which slipped to 52.0 in April, down from 52.7 the month before.
Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast
The post USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 29th May to 2nd June 2017
Technical Outlook: EURUSD rallied above 1.1200 last week but price action failed to hold on to the gains above this level for long. As a result, EURUSD closed below 1.1200 on Friday. We expect to see further downside only below 1.1150 which will potentially put the euro on track to testing the 1.0950 support level. The week ahead will be crucial as the data could shape the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike expectations. Watch for price action near 1.1200. A failure to breakout above this price level will signal a move to the downside..
Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead from the eurozone will see traders shifting focus to the flash inflation estimates figures which stands out in an otherwise relatively quiet trading week. The flash inflation figures for the month of May will shed light on whether consumer prices stabilized following a sharp increase the month before. Most of the previous gains in consumer prices came as a result of price increase around the Easter holiday which is expected to see consumer prices pullback in May as a result. Besides the eurozone’s inflation data, other regional economic releases includes the German and Spanish inflation figures. Starting Thursday, the new trading month will be marked with the latest manufacturing PMI numbers from the region.
Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
The post EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 22nd to 26th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
NZDUSD had been bearish two weeks ago. However, the last two weeks have been bullish with the pair. The pair breached an important level of resistance on its bull journey as well. As things stand with NZDUSD, the price might come back to that level to confirm the level of flip over support. If it really happens then buyers will jump into the pair to drive the price towards the North again. Let us have a look at the H4 chart of NZDUSD…
NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 24th May 2017
As we see that, the pair has been bullish on the H4 chart. The level of 0.69475 got breached, which was a massive level of resistance earlier. The price went up to 0.70450 after the breakout and then started having correction. If the price comes back at the level of 0.69475, and produces a Daily reversal candle right at that level, then buying NZDUSD would get some green pips for the buyers. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade
The chart that we have used here for the trade setup is an H4 chart, but the reversal candle should be a Daily candle. This is because that the level of resistance was actually a daily resistance, where the price got rejected twice on the H4 chart recently (see the marks on the chart). Thus, taking the entry after a Daily reversal candle would be more rewarding.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 24th May 2017
The post NZDUSD Price Action Analysis – 24th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
CADJPY took a long bearish ride on the Daily/weekly chart. The level of 80.570 played an important role in that bearish journey. The price had a support at the level and went towards the upside to make some corrections. Then, the price made another bearish move, but got rejected from the same level. This means the level of 80.570 has to be on the watch list and it has to be dealt very carefully by the traders of CADJPY. Meanwhile the pair might be getting ready to offer us a short entry on the Daily chart. Let us have a look at the D1 chart of CADJPY…
We see on the last bearish move, the long bearish daily candle breached the level of 82.450. Then, we had 3 corrective daily candles to check the level of flip over resistance. The level has been held so far. If this level produces a Daily reversal candle, which ideally should be today, then selling the pair would get us some green pips. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…To take the short entry on this trade setup, we have to wait to get a daily reversal candle at the recommended level. This means we will not be able to take the entry until tomorrow. Meanwhile, we have to wait patiently. This is what is called “Predator approach” in the Forex trading. We have to learn the art of being a super predator.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: CADJPY Price Action Analysis – 23rd May 2017
The post CADJPY Price Action Analysis – 23rd May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
GBP/USD is struggling to hold onto the 1.28 level. This is already a drop of over 250 pips from the cycle highs seen earlier in May and at the lowest level since April 26th, a full month. There are three reasons for the downfall of cable as it approaches a critical level. Why GBP/USD is [...]
The post GBP/USD trades at the lowest in a month – 3 reasons and levels appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Good news from the US: the economy grew by 1.2% annualized against 0.9% expected. Durable goods orders are up 0.7% but core orders disappointed with a drop of 0.4%. The US dollar is slightly stronger. The US was expected to report an upgrade of the Q1 2017 assessment from 0.7% to 0.9%. The figures are all [...]
The post US GDP revised up to 1.2% – USD rises appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
EURUSD has been bullish on the Daily chart. Last Thursday was a corrective day, but the next day (Friday) made another huge move towards the North. On its way, it broke an important level of resistance at 1.11650. If this level produces an H4 bullish reversal candle, then buying the pair should get some green pips for the buyers. Let us have a look at the H1 chart of EURUSD….
EURUSD Past Trade Idea – 22nd May 2017
As we see on the chart that the price breached through the level of 1.11650. Earlier the price tried to find its resistance right at that level. Eventually the level of resistance got broken and the price went up to 1.12100. As things stand with the pair, the price is having downside correction. If the price comes at 1.11650 and produces an H4 reversal candle, then buying EURUSD should be the best option for the buyers. Let us have a look at the summary of the trade…
As we know there are many types of reversal candles such as Doji, Inside bar, Engulfing, Pinbar, etc. Pinbar is considered the best reversal candle and Engulfing candle is considered the second best reversal candle to take entries. To identify an Engulfing candle is an easy task. However, A Pin bar can be deceptive sometimes. There are some characteristics of a perfect Pin bar. Traders are advised that they learn those characteristics of Pinbar well.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: EURUSD Past Trade Idea – 22nd May 2017
The post EURUSD Past Trade Idea – 22nd May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
One of the reasons that EUR/USD is trending higher stems from the divergence in growth. The euro-zone economy has grown at an annualized pace of 2% in Q1 2017 (0.5% q/q) while the US lagged behind with only 0.7% annualized. The second release of US GDP is expected to show stronger growth of 0.9% annualized. [...]
The post US GDP Preview: a buy opportunity on EUR/USD? 5 scenarios appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The reports leading into the OPEC meeting became reality. The cartel and its friends outside the group will extend the oil production deal for another nine months, through March 2018. The conditions remain the same, including the exemptions for trouble-stricken Libya and Nigeria. The price of oil was front-running the meeting. And as in many similar [...]
The post USD/CAD rises with oil’s post-OPEC fall appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The Canadian dollar is following oil prices as OPEC members are concluding a deal. But this is not the only mover of the loonie. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: BTMU FX Strategy Research notes that CAD has been continued to rebound as of late resulting in USD/CAD trading around back the 1.3400-level. On the [...]
The post CAD: Supported By Technicals, Positioning, & Domestic Factors – BTMU appeared first on Forex Crunch.
OPEC members are convening in Vienna to discuss an extension to the deal that saw a cut in production. They seem to be converging about extending the cuts by 9 months, as reports had already suggested earlier. The cuts will probably at the same scale of the previous agreement. Prices have gone up ahead of the [...]
The post Oil sells the OPEC fact as details emerge appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The second estimate of UK GDP was expected to confirm the initial read: a growth rate of 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y. Quarterly growth Quarterly growth was quite robust following the EU referendum last June. The economy continued pushing forward at rates of around 0.6% and 0.7%. But, Q1 2017 already saw a sharp slowdown. Please [...]
The post UK GDP revised down to 0.2% – missing expectations appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The dollar dropped on Trump’s troubles but managed to recover, or at least correct. Some currency pairs have reached new highs and some are redefining ranges. What lines should we watch? Lines of support and resistance for the major pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF. Lines of resistance and support for the following [...]
The post Technical levels to watch – last week of May 2017 appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
EURNZD has been bullish. However, the pace of the trend has been rather sluggish. Nevertheless, the price has kept making higher high on the H4, and on the Daily chart. On the H4 chart, the price has had about 7 corrective candles to find a level of support. As things stand, the level of 1.60270 has become the level of support and the price is heading towards the North to make a breakout to offer us a long entry. Let us have a look at the H4 chart of EURNZD…
USDNZD Past Trade Idea – 19th May 2017
As we see that, the level of 1.60270 is actually a flip over support. The pair produced an Engulfing bullish H4 candle right on that level. The price has been going towards the North to make a breakout at 1.61465. If we do see an H4 breakout at 1.61465, then buying EURNZD would get us some green pips.
Let us have a look at the summary of the trade
As we see with EURNZD that the pair has been sluggish even if it has been on a trend. Thus, we need to make sure that we get a momentum breakout on the trade setup that I have shared here. What I mean by this is the breakout candle has to be a good looking bullish H4 candle, which has to breach the breakout level with huge command and must not have a long spike on its head.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: USDNZD Past Trade Idea – 19th May 2017
The post EURNZD Past Trade Idea – 19th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Most Fed officials saw a tightening likely appropriate “soon”. This can be seen as a hint towards a rate hike in the next meeting in June. The dollar shrugs this off. The Fed releases the meeting minutes from the rate decision on May 3rd. At the time, the FOMC left the interest rate unchanged at [...]
The post FOMC Minutes leave door open for a June hike appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged but USD/CAD is far from unchanged, falling to new lows. Dollar/CAD is trading just around 1.3480, falling from resistance at 1.3540. Were markets expecting a big dose of dovishness? — more coming
The post Canadian dollar rises on the BOC appeared first on Forex Crunch.
The Federal Reserve is currently expected to raise rates in June, but doubts are everywhere. The meeting minutes from the gathering earlier this month could provide hints about the next moves. A GDP update from the UK will feed into the elections while a number from the US could lead the Fed. And, always watch [...]
The post Fed minutes, updated GDP and perhaps more Trump trouble appeared first on Forex Crunch.
EUR/UDS was already touching 1.12 and then it dropped to 1.1287 on Draghi’s words. Draghi said that the macroeconomic environment is improving but balanced it with more stable words: there is no reason to deviate from the current policy. The indicators are not there. Not yet at least. At the moment, the ECB does not see [...]
The post Draghi still sees inflation as subdued – EUR/USD slides appeared first on Forex Crunch.
Before you continue, we want to make sure you understand that this is a past trade idea found inside The Price Action Club which is a premium Price Action trade signal service. This post is 1 week delayed and this idea is no longer valid but the lesson is still valid. We post this to show you what is inside the Price Action Club. It would be awesome if you join us to learn and to trade our trade ideas. We hope to see you inside the Price Action Club soon. Click here to join us…
USDCHF has been very bearish for the last 5 trading days. The price has kept making new lower lows on the H4 chart without having too many pauses. Today’s price action suggests that the pair might take some corrections up to the New York open. If the New York open produces an H4 bearish reversal candle, then selling the pair would get us some green pips. Let us find out the level where the reversal candle to be produced.
USDCHF Past Trade Idea – 18th May 2017
There are many types of reversal candles such as Engulfing, Pin Bar, Doji, Hammer, Inverted Hammer, Inside bar. Among them, Engulfing reversal candle and Pinbar reversal candle are strong reversal candle patterns. The rest of them work well as well, but they do not work as well as Pinbar or Engulfing do. As a trader, we have to have a very good understanding of the reversal candlestick pattern. In the Forex market, this is known as “Japanese candlestick pattern”.
You can also take a look at our previous (and most likely profitable) Free Forex Trading Signals Here.
We hope that you enjoy our Free Forex Trading Signal today: USDCHF Past Trade Idea – 18th May 2017
The post USDCHF Past Trade Idea – 18th May 2017 appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Who are the participants in the forex market?
Although the “big players” still account for the majority of the daily turnover in forex, independent traders have also found their place in the market. Independent traders have today the same access to currency quotes and news as the big banks and institutions.
Some traders think they can’t compete with the “big players” in the forex market: the large banks, large commercial companies, governments, central banks, insurance funds etc. The truth is, you don’t have to compete with these giants. Instead of trying to be ahead of them, you can trade along with them. And, most of the time, the “big players” are hit by the same breaking news or volatile market movements just like an independent trader would be. Interest rate changes by central banks, inflation and employment reports, natural disasters, almost all news are immediately available to both the “big players” and independent traders. Instead of fearing these large investors, you should read their analysis and forecasts, and try to jump in the same trades as they do. That being said, their forecasts are also wrong from to time. The market is large enough not to be much influenced by any specific bank or company.
Let’s take a closer look at the “big players” in forex.
The big banks account for the majority of the transacted volume. The amounts they transact between each other are huge, often hundreds of millions of dollars. The biggest players include Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citi, HSBC, Goldman Sachs and others. Unlike other market participants, banks have the little advantage that they can track their clients’ orders and determine possible buying and selling pressures on specific currencies. But, due to the size of the FX market ($5 trillion a day), one single bank can’t move the market and influence the prices. They have the same goal of making profit, just like a retail investor.
Large companies also participate in the foreign-exchange market. From small businesses to large multinational corporations, many companies need to exchange currencies from time to time. Unlike the other participants in forex, the intention of companies is not directly to make a profit trading currencies. Rather, the nature of their core business makes them buy and sell currencies. For example, a cheese producer from France selling his products in the United Kingdom, will receive British pounds for the sales. He will exchange the pounds to euros in France, not with the intention to profit on the currency moves. Indeed, large companies want to offset the risk from currency fluctuations, making their profit in overseas markets more predictable. To do so, they will hedge their receivables or fix the exchange rate with currency forward agreements.
The role of governments and their central banks is an important one in the forex market. Central banks don’t trade currencies to make profits, but to facilitate their government’s monetary policies. The role of central banks in developed countries is usually to maintain a stable exchange rate through eliminating excess supply and demand for their national currency, and to target specific inflation rates and low unemployment rates. To achieve their goals, central banks hold reserve currencies which they buy or sell on the market to stabilize the national currency’s exchange rate, or they can change the key interest rates and influence supply and demand for the local currency. Central banks usually hold dollars as the reserve currency, but recently other currencies like euros or Japanese yens are also becoming increasingly popular. Traders should closely monitor any activities of central banks as they can have a large and long-lasting impact on the value of currencies. Governments play an indirect role in the forex market, mainly by the sheer volume of money that they are able to invest through public spending and investing. Government debts also play an important role for the value of national currencies, with higher debts usually having a negative impact on the currency.
The forex market, combined with some knowledge and experience, can be very profitable for the individual retail trader. Many retail traders don’t even have a finance background, and are self-taught in forex. Many people with a technical background, like engineers, find forex exciting as they can establish their own strict rules and analyze the market from a technical perspective. To start trading forex, you don’t even need to make large initial deposits. The availability of trading on margin makes it possible to start trading with as little as $50, but opening much larger positions.
The post Who are the participants in the forex market? appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Tips on GDP Reports; And How Traders Can Utilize Them
The GDP release remains the broadest and most comprehensive indicator available to assess a country’s economic condition. The Gross Domestic Product represents the sum of the market value of all finished goods and services during a specific period of time (usually one year), produced inside a country, regardless of the ownership of the resources. For example, all cars produced by Ford in Germany, are included in the German GDP, while all cars produced by Mercedes-Benz in Mexico, are included in the Mexican GDP.
The U.S. GDP is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and contains data on personal income and consumption expenditures, corporate profits, national income and inflation.
The number that traders watch the most, is the annualized growth rate of the GDP, reported quarterly. A growth rate higher than the forecast, means the economy is performing well and has a positive impact on the currency. A growth rate that didn’t meet the expectations, has a negative impact on the currency.
How to Trade the GDP Report
Being a quarterly release, most of the movements in the GDP are already anticipated by the market. GDP, as the most comprehensive indicator, is usually forecasted by some other indicators and priced into the market. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact on the currency market.
Final GDP releases usually don’t have a big impact on the market. The reasons for this are primary the frequency of the reports – GDP reports are released quarterly. Other indicator already give an insight into what the GDP growth might be. These are so called “leading” indicators, like stock indices, retail sales, housing starts and money supply. These indicators anticipate the future state of the economy, and the final GDP report is therefore already priced in the market before the release. That being said, the advance GDP report, which is released approximately 2 months before the final release, has the most impact on the currency market. Personal consumption expenditures are the largest component of GDP, accounting for roughly two-thirds of total economic output.
Figure 1 The GDP consists mostly of personal consumption and retail sales
As the chart in FIGURE 2 shows, pronounced declines in the year-over-year growth in consumer expenditures have preceded each of the six recessions in the United States since 1963. Traditionally, the first retrenchment occurs in purchases of big-ticket items, such as durable goods. So it is in that portion of consumer spending where you’ll find early warnings of economic downturns, and adequately anticipate the impact on the foreign exchange market.
Figure 2 Personal consumption expenditures and recessions, United States
Conclusion: The GDP reports are the benchmark of economic activity, and traders use other indicators to anticipate movements in GDP. In other words, the level of GDP is usually the variable that other indicators attempt to forecast or emulate. GDP is also released on a quarterly basis, and the economic associations and relationships it points to aren’t as predictive as those expressed on a monthly or weekly basis.
The post Tips on GDP Reports; And How Traders Can Utilize Them appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
There is an old saying in the forex market that the trend is your friend and most of the professional traders in the financial industry execute their trade in favor of the long-term prevailing trend to reduce the risk exposure. But, executing your trend at the perfect place in favor of the trend is a little bit tricky and this is where the Fibonacci retracement tools come into play. Let’s get into more details of the Fibonacci retracement tools.
Fibonacci retracements are simple but very effective charting tools in the forex market that allow you to find the possible retracement levels in the market. The retracement levels are calculated based on Fibonacci series and most of the time the market respects this Fibonacci retracement levels and continue its movement in favor of the long-term prevailing trend in the market. Let’s see an example how the Fibonacci retracements help traders to find the best possible trade entries in favor of the long-term prevailing trend.
Figure: Use of Fibonacci retracement tools
From the above figure, you can see three important Fibonacci retracement levels drawn in the AUDUSD pair. Some of you might think how to draw these key retracement levels in the market. But there is no need to worry, since all the trading platforms come with a built-in Fibonacci retracement tool, so all you need to do is to find the key swings in the market. For instance, in the above figure, we have drawn the retracement levels from the key swing low to swing high in the market since it’s an uptrend. Similarly, for a downtrend, you need to draw the retracement levels of the key swing high to swing low in the market. Once you have the Fibonacci retracement levels, wait for trading signals at the major retracement levels to execute your orders with proper risk management factors. Please note that here we have shown you only the most reliable Fibonacci retracement levels, but you will also find other minor retracement levels in the market while you use Fibonacci levels.
Always trade the higher time frame
So, if you are thinking to become a professional Fibonacci trader then make sure that you always follow these important rules. No trading strategy is 100 percent accurate and even the long-term established trend in the market often gets changed. So make sure that you always use proper risk management factors to save your trading capital in the market. Unlike the novice traders, the professional traders always risk only a certain portion of their trading account so that they don’t have to worry about their loss if the trade takes the opposite direction.
Figure: A clear break of 61.8 % retracement levels
From the above figure, you can clearly see that the price has broken the 61.8 percent retracement level, which clearly signifies a trend change in the market. However, you should not enter into the market right after the breach of .618 percent retracement level, rather you should wait for a strong bullish candle in the market to confirm the establishment of the new momentum in the market.
Summary: Trading the Fibonacci retracement levels is one of the most profitable and reliable systems in the forex market. Professional traders use the price action confirmation signal in the market to execute the trades at the key retracement levels in the market. When you trade these levels, make sure that you draw the retracement levels in the higher time frame or else you will not have high-quality trading signals. Always follow proper risk management factors in every single trade since it is considered to be the most important element for successful forex trading.
The post A brief overview of the Fibonacci retracements in forex appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Tips on Employment Indicators; How to Take Advantage of NFP Reports
As always, the main strategy is to find ways to predict what a potentially market-moving number will be before it is released. Because the payrolls figure is such an accurate indicator of economic activity, for instance, economists and traders try to get ahead of the curve by forecasting it. Many keep a journal by their desks, recording events they come across in their daily reading that could influence employment.
Unexpected disruptions like labor strikes, mass layoffs, and natural disasters like hurricanes, tornados, floods, and blizzards can greatly alter the number of workers in a given month. Economists also watch a number of alternative indicators for evidence to support or refute the developments suggested by datain the employment report. One of these alternative indicators is the index of monthly layoff announcements made by companies. The index, compiled by the employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, measures intended dismissals rather than actual firings. It is thus something of a leading indicator. It gives economists an insight into industries that may be experiencing difficulties. Movements in the index are also helpful in gauging the bigger picture contained in the BLS employment report. That is, increases in the number of layoff announcements usually portend a softer payroll picture, while a decline in the number of announced layoffs generally results in stronger payroll growth.
Another resource is the Help-Wanted Advertising Index. Created and maintained by the Conference Board, it tracks the monthly volume of help-wanted advertisements in the top fifty-one newspapers across the nation, thus identifying regional demand for labor. Since the advent of the Internet, however, businesses have had other ways to advertise available positions, so the popularity of the index has faded. Still, it can be helpful in determining general trends in demand for workers.
Probably the most helpful resource for predicting movements in monthly payrolls is the weekly claims for unemployment benefit insurance. Rising jobless claims usually portend a deteriorating labor market. Many economists argue that when the four-week moving average of claims tops 400,000, job creation is stagnant. Of course, the correlation between claims for jobless benefits and the employment data is not precise. Employment conditions can change at any time, and short-lived changes are more likely to show up in the weekly jobless-claims report than in the monthly BLS employment report. Also, although unemployment-insurance benefits generally last only thirteen weeks, bear in mind that people can be out of work for months at a time. Finally, some unemployed workers are not entitled to jobless benefits.
The Non Farm Payrolls release has a big market-impact. It is one of the most important indicators to watch for a trader, as increasing unemployment causes a decrease in personal consumption which has the biggest share in GDP calculations. Usually, if NFP is above the expectations, this will create a positive environment for the US dollar. And if the NFP is below market expectations, the impact will most likely be negative for the dollar. The FIGURE 1 shows the quite negative correlation that NFP reports have with the EUR/USD currency pair (notice the swing highs and lows in both lines moving opposite). I.e., a rising NFP is mostly beneficial to the U.S. dollar.
The post Tips on Employment Indicators; How to Take Advantage of NFP Reports appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
Bollinger Bands Technical Strategies
Bollinger Bands are a very popular technical indicator which measures the price volatility of a financial instrument. Bollinger Bands are invented by the famous technical analyst John Bollinger in the 1980s, and trademarked by him in 2011. Bollinger Bands are showing the volatility of the price by plotting two bands, the upper and lower band, two standard deviations away from a simple moving average (SMA). In general, when the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen, and in less volatile period the bands become narrower. If the bands become narrower and track parallel for an extended time, the price will usually bounce of the upper and lower bands, which take a role of support and resistance lines in sideways trading conditions. Let’s take a look at some popular strategies which involve the Bollinger Bands.
The Squeeze
When the bands come very close together, and the distance from the moving average becomes very small, it is called a squeeze. This market condition implies very low volatility, and traders should be prepared for a possible increase in future market volatility and trading opportunities. The opposite situation, in which the bands are wider apart, means that the market volatility is very high. In this case traders should prepare for a decrease in volatility and eventually consider exiting a position. The following chart shows a squeeze with a succeeding rise in price volatility.
The Breakout
A breakout occurs when the price closes outside the upper or lower band. This situation is very rare, as 90-95% of all market activity is taking place inside the bands, so far as the standard setting for the standard deviation multiplier is used (K=2). A breakout is therefore a major event, but it doesn’t provide a complete trading signal, because the future direction of the price or time when a breakout will occur are unknown. Therefore, John Bollinger suggests using other direction-based indicators for entering a trade. The following chart shows a fake breakout:
Some traders also use a breakout for entering a trade. Because the bands act as support and resistance lines, a breakout of the price outside these bands is considered a potential trading possibility. In the next chart, we show a breakout trade setup on EUR/GBP, with Bollinger Bands (20,2).
In the beginning of December 2015, the price moved outside the upper band with a long bullish candlestick. To confirm the breakout, a trader should wait for a second signal, which in this case give the following candlestick patterns. The next period after the breakout, a small black candlestick appears, with high and close prices inside the previous candlestick’s body. This is the first signal showing the dominance of buyers. The next period, forming a bullish long-shadow candlestick, and with a close just on the border of the upper band, confirms once more that an uptrend is possibly ahead. Now it is time to enter a long position.
The pair trades the next few months close to the upper band, with a few fake breakouts, and touches quite often the middle band, i.e. the 20-period moving average. The position should be closed either when the price falls to the lower band, or the trend shows signs of exhaustion. In this case, the price failed to make a new higher high on the 24th of March 2016, forming a double top with the upper band acting as a resistance level. This is a level where trader would consider exiting the position.
Riding the Bands
Another popular strategy based on Bollinger Bands, is riding the bands. During powerful down and uptrends, the price tends to stick to the lower and upper bands, respectively. This shows that there is still enough steam behind the trend, and that it will likely continue in the future. As mentioned before, plotting the bands two standard deviations away from the moving average, means that almost 90-95% of the price-action is contained inside the bands. A price sticking to one of the bands, is therefore a major statistical event which happens in exceptional conditions, like changes in the currency fundamentals.
The chart above shows the EUR/GBP pair on H4 timeframe. On 20th of August 2016, the price broke the previous high and traded outside the upper band for a while. Opening a long position after the break of resistance would give the opportunity to ride the upper band, as the price has touched the upper band until 25th of August. After the price closed away from the band, traders should close the long position with a nice profit in the account.
The post Bollinger Bands Technical Strategies appeared first on Advanced Forex Strategies.
